Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (76%). 3 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Rockets vs. Bucks: O/U 216.5

3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Over (43%) · Over at 24¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 29

Over24¢Under76¢Ended Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 43%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.6K

Combined PnL

-$345.8

Smart Money Entry

58.1¢ → 24¢

-59% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 24%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 7 top traders (43%)Underdog side (market favors Under 76%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over24%

Under76%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over3 traders

Total Value$678.48

Total Shares1,987

Combined PnL-$520.44

Under4 traders

Total Value$430.99

Total Shares854

Combined PnL+$174.63

Over — 43%Under — 57%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Underavg 50.5¢	$1.0K	$991.94	-$26.08	49% 559-583 (1142)
└ Under leg	Underavg 50.5¢	$562.87	$557.29	-$5.57
└ Over leg	Overavg 52.4¢	$455.16	$434.65	-$20.51
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Underavg 48¢	$452.82	$460.11	+$7.29	54% 16884-14152 (31036)
└ Under leg	Underavg 48¢	$254.98	$265.67	+$10.69
└ Over leg	Overavg 50.9¢	$197.84	$194.44	-$3.4
AN Anon455CTR	Overavg 51¢	$421.63	$413.37	-$8.27	56% 2651-2105 (4756)
RollAwayTheDew	Underavg 27¢	$138.78	$257	+$118.22	53% 319-288 (607)
TA takeormakeCTR	Overavg 64.2¢	$677.6	$153.11	-$524.49	54% 3824-3298 (7122)
RN1	Underavg 28¢	$69.99	$124.99	+$54.99	54% 55844-47942 (103786)
JU justaluckydudeCTR	Overavg 52¢	$99.68	$112	+$12.32	54% 10476-9103 (19579)
BU BullishBarb<$100	Underavg 51¢	$40.29	$39.5	-$0.79	43% 2996-4016 (7012)
HRTrading<$100	Underavg 47¢	$7.3	$9.5	+$2.21	53% 3243-2909 (6152)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Under

Invested

$1,018.02

Value

$991.94

PnL

-$26.08

Record

49%

559-583 (1142)

Both legs:

Under$562.8750.5¢-$5.57

Over$455.1652.4¢-$20.51

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Under

Invested

$452.82

Value

$460.11

PnL

+$7.29

Record

54%

16884-14152 (31036)

Both legs:

Under$254.9848¢+$10.69

Over$197.8450.9¢-$3.4

Anon455CTR

Over

Invested

$421.63

Value

$413.37

PnL

-$8.27

Record

56%

2651-2105 (4756)

RollAwayTheDew

Under

Invested

$138.78

Value

$257

PnL

+$118.22

Record

53%

319-288 (607)

takeormakeCTR

Over

Invested

$677.6

Value

$153.11

PnL

-$524.49

Record

54%

3824-3298 (7122)

RN1

Under

Invested

$69.99

Value

$124.99

PnL

+$54.99

Record

54%

55844-47942 (103786)

justaluckydudeCTR

Over

Invested

$99.68

Value

$112

PnL

+$12.32

Record

54%

10476-9103 (19579)

BullishBarb<$100

Under

Invested

$40.29

Value

$39.5

PnL

-$0.79

Record

43%

2996-4016 (7012)

HRTrading<$100

Under

Invested

$7.3

Value

$9.5

PnL

+$2.21

Record

53%

3243-2909 (6152)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 24%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 7 top traders (43%)Underdog side (market favors Under 76%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance25.9%

24.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$285.54

Max Loss

-$100.00

385.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.