Spread: Rockets (-9.5)
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Bucks (75%) · Bucks at 56¢ · $5K held · ends Oct 29
⚠️
Avoid
Bucks
4
Bucks 75%
1 arb excluded
$4.8K
$66.93
55¢ → 55.5¢
+1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidBucks at 56%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | Bucksavg 55¢ | $4.1K | $4.2K | +$59.74 | 54% 16865-14143 (31008) |
 VeryLucky888 | Bucksavg 55¢ | $275 | $280 | +$5 | 58% 40754-29472 (70226) |
 RN1ARB<$100 | Bucksavg 55¢ | $220 | $222.5 | +$2.5 | 54% 55713-47799 (103512) |
| └ Bucks leg | Bucksavg 55¢ | $137.5 | $140 | +$2.5 | |
| └ Rockets leg | Rocketsavg 44¢ | $82.5 | $82.5 | -$0 | |
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989 | Bucksavg 55¢ | $120.52 | $122.72 | +$2.19 | 53% 5499-4843 (10342) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Rocketsavg 44¢ | $0.84 | $0.84 | -$0 | 47% 2044-2347 (4391) |
Invested
$4,141.81
Value
$4.2K
PnL
+$59.74
Record
54%
16865-14143 (31008)
VeryLucky888Invested
$275
Value
$280
PnL
+$5
Record
58%
40754-29472 (70226)
RN1ARB<$100Invested
$220
Value
$222.5
PnL
+$2.5
Record
54%
55713-47799 (103512)
Both legs:
Invested
$120.52
Value
$122.72
PnL
+$2.19
Record
53%
5499-4843 (10342)
Invested
$0.84
Value
$0.84
PnL
-$0
Record
47%
2044-2347 (4391)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
55.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.