Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Rockets, while the market favors Bucks (52%). 5 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: Rockets (-8.5)
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Rockets (71%) · Rockets at 49¢ · $10K held · ends Oct 29
⚠️
Avoid
Rockets
7
Rockets 71%
$10.1K
$0.33
49.4¢ → 48.5¢
-2% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidRockets at 49%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)Underdog side (market favors Bucks 52%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MO monkeymashingkeyboard | Bucksavg 50¢ | $4.2K | $4.2K | +$41.53 | 54% 568-487 (1055) |
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Rocketsavg 48.9¢ | $3.3K | $3.4K | +$39.7 | 54% 16793-14092 (30885) |
FO Forecastication2CTR | Rocketsavg 50¢ | $2.3K | $2.3K | -$70.02 | 50% 6768-6780 (13548) |
IC ic4creamCTR | Rocketsavg 51¢ | $184.62 | $173.76 | -$10.86 | 59% 2601-1831 (4432) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Rocketsavg 49¢ | $25.16 | $25.24 | +$0.08 | 58% 28040-20670 (48710) |
 0xheavy888<$100 | Bucksavg 51¢ | $5.1 | $5.2 | +$0.1 | 56% 6870-5503 (12373) |
RL RLWGCTR<$100 | Rocketsavg 50¢ | $5 | $4.8 | -$0.2 | 50% 7616-7631 (15247) |
Invested
$4,152.82
Value
$4.2K
PnL
+$41.53
Record
54%
568-487 (1055)
Invested
$3,344.2
Value
$3.4K
PnL
+$39.7
Record
54%
16793-14092 (30885)
Invested
$2,344
Value
$2.3K
PnL
-$70.02
Record
50%
6768-6780 (13548)
Invested
$184.62
Value
$173.76
PnL
-$10.86
Record
59%
2601-1831 (4432)
Invested
$25.16
Value
$25.24
PnL
+$0.08
Record
58%
28040-20670 (48710)
0xheavy888<$100Invested
$5.1
Value
$5.2
PnL
+$0.1
Record
56%
6870-5503 (12373)
Invested
$5
Value
$4.8
PnL
-$0.2
Record
50%
7616-7631 (15247)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
48.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.