Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Bucks, while the market favors Rockets (53%). 5 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: Rockets (-7.5)
5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Bucks (63%) · Bucks at 48¢ · $7K held · ends Oct 29
⚠️
Avoid
Bucks
8
Bucks 63%
$7.0K
-$17.56
47¢ → 47.5¢
+1% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidBucks at 48%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 8 top traders (63%)Underdog side (market favors Rockets 53%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 91%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
71% of non-arb traders are on Bucks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SU SunlineTickerCTR | Bucksavg 47¢ | $2.8K | $2.8K | +$0.06 | 62% 4022-2462 (6484) |
MO mooseborzoii | Rocketsavg 53¢ | $2.1K | $2.1K | -$20.09 | 50% 1138-1132 (2270) |
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Bucksavg 47¢ | $1.2K | $1.2K | +$0.02 | 54% 16865-14143 (31008) |
 RN1 | Rocketsavg 53¢ | $512.52 | $512.52 | -$0 | 54% 55713-47799 (103512) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Bucksavg 47¢ | $235 | $237.5 | +$2.5 | 58% 40754-29472 (70226) |
WO woshikd99CTR<$100 | Bucksavg 47¢ | $94 | $94 | +$0 | 50% 31-31 (62) |
BU BullishBarbCTR<$100 | Bucksavg 47¢ | $39.48 | $39.48 | +$0 | 38% 848-1408 (2256) |
BA Bayupati<$100 | Rocketsavg 53¢ | $5.3 | $5.25 | -$0.05 | 51% 193-189 (382) |
Invested
$2,795.62
Value
$2.8K
PnL
+$0.06
Record
62%
4022-2462 (6484)
Invested
$2,129.62
Value
$2.1K
PnL
-$20.09
Record
50%
1138-1132 (2270)
Invested
$1,172.5
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$0.02
Record
54%
16865-14143 (31008)
RN1Invested
$512.52
Value
$512.52
PnL
-$0
Record
54%
55713-47799 (103512)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$235
Value
$237.5
PnL
+$2.5
Record
58%
40754-29472 (70226)
Invested
$94
Value
$94
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
31-31 (62)
Invested
$39.48
Value
$39.48
PnL
+$0
Record
38%
848-1408 (2256)
Invested
$5.3
Value
$5.25
PnL
-$0.05
Record
51%
193-189 (382)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
47.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.