Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Bucks, while the market favors Rockets (81%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Spread: Rockets (-10.5)
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Bucks (60%) · Bucks at 19¢ · $5K held · ended Oct 29
⚠️
Avoid
Bucks
5
Bucks 60%
2 arb excluded
$4.5K
$12.45
57.1¢ → 19¢
-67% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidBucks at 19%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Rockets 81%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100 | Rocketsavg 44.6¢ | $2.4K | $2.6K | +$186.07 | 54% 16884-14152 (31036) |
| └ Rockets leg | Rocketsavg 44.6¢ | $1.4K | $1.8K | +$451.05 | |
| └ Bucks leg | Bucksavg 54.2¢ | $1.0K | $782.64 | -$264.98 | |
 RN1CTR | Bucksavg 58¢ | $797.14 | $798.9 | +$1.76 | 54% 55844-47942 (103786) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Bucksavg 57¢ | $703.41 | $715.75 | +$12.34 | 58% 40917-29601 (70518) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100 | Bucksavg 53¢ | $296.56 | $313.27 | +$16.71 | 49% 559-583 (1142) |
| └ Bucks leg | Bucksavg 53¢ | $200.72 | $219.66 | +$18.94 | |
| └ Rockets leg | Rocketsavg 43¢ | $95.84 | $93.61 | -$2.23 | |
 HRTrading<$100 | Rocketsavg 43.6¢ | $49.51 | $47.64 | -$1.87 | 53% 3243-2909 (6152) |
JU justaluckydudeCTR<$100 | Bucksavg 47¢ | $47.84 | $41.73 | -$6.11 | 54% 10476-9103 (19579) |
 poshposh<$100 | Rocketsavg 27¢ | $11.39 | $17.72 | +$6.33 | 59% 9478-6467 (15945) |
Invested
$2,402.42
Value
$2.6K
PnL
+$186.07
Record
54%
16884-14152 (31036)
Both legs:
RN1CTRInvested
$797.14
Value
$798.9
PnL
+$1.76
Record
54%
55844-47942 (103786)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$703.41
Value
$715.75
PnL
+$12.34
Record
58%
40917-29601 (70518)
Invested
$296.56
Value
$313.27
PnL
+$16.71
Record
49%
559-583 (1142)
Both legs:
HRTrading<$100Invested
$49.51
Value
$47.64
PnL
-$1.87
Record
53%
3243-2909 (6152)
Invested
$47.84
Value
$41.73
PnL
-$6.11
Record
54%
10476-9103 (19579)
poshposh<$100Invested
$11.39
Value
$17.72
PnL
+$6.33
Record
59%
9478-6467 (15945)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
19.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.