Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Bucks, while the market favors Rockets (75%). 2 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Rockets vs. Bucks
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Bucks (40%) · Bucks at 26¢ · $298 held · ends Oct 29
⚠️
Avoid
Bucks
5
Bucks 40%
$297.64
-$28.52
29.7¢ → 25.5¢
-14% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidBucks at 26%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Rockets 75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on Bucks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 cruzNBACTR | Bucksavg 30¢ | $193.95 | $161.63 | -$29.09 | 42% 392-545 (937) |
 nigiri99<$100 | Rocketsavg 74¢ | $88.8 | $89.4 | +$0.6 | — |
 HRTrading<$100 | Rocketsavg 74¢ | $25.91 | $25.91 | +$0 | 53% 2956-2611 (5567) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Bucksavg 25.7¢ | $13.34 | $13.26 | -$0.08 | 58% 28040-20670 (48710) |
 0xheavy888<$100 | Rocketsavg 74¢ | $7.4 | $7.45 | +$0.05 | 56% 6870-5503 (12373) |
cruzNBACTRInvested
$193.95
Value
$161.63
PnL
-$29.09
Record
42%
392-545 (937)
nigiri99<$100Invested
$88.8
Value
$89.4
PnL
+$0.6
Record
—
HRTrading<$100Invested
$25.91
Value
$25.91
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
2956-2611 (5567)
Invested
$13.34
Value
$13.26
PnL
-$0.08
Record
58%
28040-20670 (48710)
0xheavy888<$100Invested
$7.4
Value
$7.45
PnL
+$0.05
Record
56%
6870-5503 (12373)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
25.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.