Rockets vs. Mavericks: O/U 225.5
6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Over (86%) · Over at 50¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 31
⚠️
Avoid
Over
7
Over 86%
$1.6K
$17.78
52.9¢ → 50¢
-5% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 50%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 7 top traders (86%)3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | Underavg 47¢ | $830.05 | $795.78 | -$34.27 | 54% 17024-14269 (31293) |
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989 | Overavg 53¢ | $530 | $565 | +$35 | 53% 5558-4922 (10480) |
 VeryLucky888 | Overavg 53¢ | $132.5 | $116.04 | +$6.3 | 58% 41361-29991 (71352) |
0D 0x0d2d...7ff5 | Overavg 53¢ | $106.53 | $113.56 | +$7.03 | — |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Overavg 50¢ | $15.5 | $17.51 | +$2.01 | 58% 28303-20884 (49187) |
 0xheavy888<$100 | Overavg 53¢ | $10.6 | $11.3 | +$0.7 | 55% 7013-5629 (12642) |
HE Herdonia<$100 | Overavg 50¢ | $7.71 | $8.71 | +$1 | 54% 3276-2828 (6104) |
Invested
$830.05
Value
$795.78
PnL
-$34.27
Record
54%
17024-14269 (31293)
Invested
$530
Value
$565
PnL
+$35
Record
53%
5558-4922 (10480)
VeryLucky888Invested
$132.5
Value
$116.04
PnL
+$6.3
Record
58%
41361-29991 (71352)
Invested
$106.53
Value
$113.56
PnL
+$7.03
Record
—
Invested
$15.5
Value
$17.51
PnL
+$2.01
Record
58%
28303-20884 (49187)
0xheavy888<$100Invested
$10.6
Value
$11.3
PnL
+$0.7
Record
55%
7013-5629 (12642)
Invested
$7.71
Value
$8.71
PnL
+$1
Record
54%
3276-2828 (6104)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.