Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (71%). 6 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Rockets vs. Mavericks: O/U 224.5

6 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Over (55%) · Over at 29¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 31

Over29¢Under71¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 55%

Total Value

$1.4K

Combined PnL

$17.28

Smart Money Entry

48.8¢ → 29¢

-41% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 29%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 11 top traders (55%)Underdog side (market favors Under 71%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over29%

Under71%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over6 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares2,452

Combined PnL+$12.65

Under5 traders

Total Value$176.12

Total Shares342

Combined PnL+$4.63

Over — 55%Under — 45%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Overavg 48.7¢	$564.15	$573.84	+$9.7	54% 17124-14337 (31461)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Overavg 49¢	$348.39	$348.39	+$0	59% 45431-31798 (77229)
JU justaluckydudeCTR	Overavg 50.8¢	$167.12	$171.08	+$3.96	54% 10681-9281 (19962)
VI vibing123CTR	Overavg 49¢	$101.19	$100.15	-$1.03	52% 1566-1445 (3011)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Underavg 50.9¢	$68.7	$70.88	+$2.17	58% 28450-21016 (49466)
NA NatoAlfista<$100	Underavg 51¢	$40.8	$41.2	+$0.4	50% 3806-3765 (7571)
OD Oddstorm<$100	Underavg 51¢	$36.95	$36.59	-$0.36	38% 383-624 (1007)
VeryLucky888	Underavg 50¢	$126.92	$24.73	+$2.33	58% 41580-30193 (71773)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Overavg 29.9¢	$13.39	$14.32	+$0.92	52% 4099-3733 (7832)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Overavg 57¢	$8.55	$5.06	-$0.9	57% 13663-10453 (24116)
TH thatsabing0<$100	Underavg 50¢	$2.65	$2.73	+$0.08	93% 2989-242 (3231)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Over

Invested

$564.15

Value

$573.84

PnL

+$9.7

Record

54%

17124-14337 (31461)

UpTheBluesCTR

Over

Invested

$348.39

Value

$348.39

PnL

+$0

Record

59%

45431-31798 (77229)

justaluckydudeCTR

Over

Invested

$167.12

Value

$171.08

PnL

+$3.96

Record

54%

10681-9281 (19962)

vibing123CTR

Over

Invested

$101.19

Value

$100.15

PnL

-$1.03

Record

52%

1566-1445 (3011)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Under

Invested

$68.7

Value

$70.88

PnL

+$2.17

Record

58%

28450-21016 (49466)

NatoAlfista<$100

Under

Invested

$40.8

Value

$41.2

PnL

+$0.4

Record

50%

3806-3765 (7571)

Oddstorm<$100

Under

Invested

$36.95

Value

$36.59

PnL

-$0.36

Record

38%

383-624 (1007)

VeryLucky888

Under

Invested

$126.92

Value

$24.73

PnL

+$2.33

Record

58%

41580-30193 (71773)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$13.39

Value

$14.32

PnL

+$0.92

Record

52%

4099-3733 (7832)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$8.55

Value

$5.06

PnL

-$0.9

Record

57%

13663-10453 (24116)

thatsabing0<$100

Under

Invested

$2.65

Value

$2.73

PnL

+$0.08

Record

93%

2989-242 (3231)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 29%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 11 top traders (55%)Underdog side (market favors Under 71%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance31.1%

29.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$222.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

322.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.