Rockets vs. Mavericks: O/U 223.5

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Over (57%) · Over at 54¢ · $11K held · ends Oct 31

Over54¢Under46¢Ends Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 57%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$11.3K

Combined PnL

$266.51

Smart Money Entry

52.2¢ → 54¢

+4% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 54%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over54%

Under46%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over4 traders

Total Value$2.5K

Total Shares4,229

Combined PnL+$306.14

Under3 traders

Total Value$848.75

Total Shares1,896

Combined PnL-$39.63

Over — 57%Under — 43%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Overavg 51.6¢	$6.0K	$6.0K	+$14.34	54% 17115-14330 (31445)
└ Over leg	Overavg 51.6¢	$3.2K	$3.4K	+$178.79
└ Under leg	Underavg 48.4¢	$2.8K	$2.6K	-$164.45
MA MAGATheeStallion	Overavg 52¢	$2.0K	$2.3K	+$307.68	57% 245-184 (429)
HE HerdoniaARB<$100	Overavg 51¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$21.36	54% 3325-2874 (6199)
└ Over leg	Overavg 51¢	$840.17	$864.88	+$24.71
└ Under leg	Underavg 47.9¢	$363.94	$360.58	-$3.35
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Underavg 47.6¢	$1.1K	$775.19	+$8.29	46% 7940-9367 (17307)
└ Over leg	Overavg 51.5¢	$379.66	$401.67	+$25.24
└ Under leg	Underavg 47.6¢	$390.47	$373.53	-$16.94
RN1CTR	Underavg 47¢	$771.44	$747.15	-$24.29	54% 56315-48472 (104787)
VeryLucky888	Overavg 54¢	$255	$136.25	-$1.25	58% 41488-30106 (71594)
0X 0x443BCCe588E26763987e9Ae44b6b7845F09Fe8bB-1769536380439CTR	Underavg 46¢	$114.54	$99.6	-$14.94	49% 350-365 (715)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Overavg 54.3¢	$62.38	$61.88	-$0.5	58% 28411-20972 (49383)
GH ghorrock<$100	Overavg 51¢	$21.41	$21.62	+$0.21	57% 13599-10421 (24020)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Underavg 48¢	$2.4	$2	-$0.4	47% 2257-2545 (4802)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Over

Invested

$5,953.7

Value

$6.0K

PnL

+$14.34

Record

54%

17115-14330 (31445)

Both legs:

Over$3,195.6551.6¢+$178.79

Under$2,758.0548.4¢-$164.45

MAGATheeStallion

Over

Invested

$1,999.92

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$307.68

Record

57%

245-184 (429)

HerdoniaARB<$100

Over

Invested

$1,204.1

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$21.36

Record

54%

3325-2874 (6199)

Both legs:

Over$840.1751¢+$24.71

Under$363.9447.9¢-$3.35

38791873984189ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$1,113.22

Value

$775.19

PnL

+$8.29

Record

46%

7940-9367 (17307)

Both legs:

Over$379.6651.5¢+$25.24

Under$390.4747.6¢-$16.94

RN1CTR

Under

Invested

$771.44

Value

$747.15

PnL

-$24.29

Record

54%

56315-48472 (104787)

VeryLucky888

Over

Invested

$255

Value

$136.25

PnL

-$1.25

Record

58%

41488-30106 (71594)

0x443BCCe588E26763987e9Ae44b6b7845F09Fe8bB-1769536380439CTR

Under

Invested

$114.54

Value

$99.6

PnL

-$14.94

Record

49%

350-365 (715)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Over

Invested

$62.38

Value

$61.88

PnL

-$0.5

Record

58%

28411-20972 (49383)

ghorrock<$100

Over

Invested

$21.41

Value

$21.62

PnL

+$0.21

Record

57%

13599-10421 (24020)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.4

Value

PnL

-$0.4

Record

47%

2257-2545 (4802)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 54%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance56.2%

54.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$77.82

Max Loss

-$100.00

177.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.