Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (56%). 2 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Rockets vs. Mavericks: O/U 221.5
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (40%) · Under at 45¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 31
⚠️
Avoid
Under
5
Under 40%
$2.0K
$0.26
44¢ → 44.5¢
+1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 45%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Over 56%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TO tomb2456CTR | Underavg 44¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | +$0 | 51% 290-282 (572) |
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR | Underavg 44¢ | $440 | $440 | +$5 | 53% 5579-4941 (10520) |
38 38791873984189 | Overavg 56¢ | $377.35 | $310.3 | -$1.62 | 46% 8006-9466 (17472) |
 RollAwayTheDew | Overavg 56¢ | $156.13 | $153.35 | -$2.79 | 52% 374-341 (715) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Overavg 56¢ | $33.88 | $33.55 | -$0.33 | 58% 28428-20989 (49417) |
Invested
$1,090.24
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
290-282 (572)
Invested
$440
Value
$440
PnL
+$5
Record
53%
5579-4941 (10520)
Invested
$377.35
Value
$310.3
PnL
-$1.62
Record
46%
8006-9466 (17472)
RollAwayTheDewInvested
$156.13
Value
$153.35
PnL
-$2.79
Record
52%
374-341 (715)
Invested
$33.88
Value
$33.55
PnL
-$0.33
Record
58%
28428-20989 (49417)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
44.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.