Spread: Rockets (-8.5)
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Mavericks (50%) · Mavericks at 57¢ · $941 held · ends Oct 31
⚠️
Avoid
Mavericks
6
Mavericks 50%
$940.76
-$9.89
57.7¢ → 57.5¢
+0% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidMavericks at 57%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FO Forecastication2 | Mavericksavg 58¢ | $352.06 | $349.03 | -$3.04 | 50% 6969-6969 (13938) |
HO HomeRunHazard | Mavericksavg 57¢ | $271.89 | $274.28 | +$2.38 | 54% 17115-14333 (31448) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Rocketsavg 42¢ | $505 | $212.5 | -$6.84 | 58% 41497-30120 (71617) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Mavericksavg 59¢ | $74.93 | $72.39 | -$1.91 | 46% 7970-9410 (17380) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Rocketsavg 42.8¢ | $31.61 | $31.1 | -$0.51 | 58% 28416-20976 (49392) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Rocketsavg 42¢ | $1.45 | $1.47 | +$0.02 | 54% 56317-48476 (104793) |
Invested
$352.06
Value
$349.03
PnL
-$3.04
Record
50%
6969-6969 (13938)
Invested
$271.89
Value
$274.28
PnL
+$2.38
Record
54%
17115-14333 (31448)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$505
Value
$212.5
PnL
-$6.84
Record
58%
41497-30120 (71617)
Invested
$74.93
Value
$72.39
PnL
-$1.91
Record
46%
7970-9410 (17380)
Invested
$31.61
Value
$31.1
PnL
-$0.51
Record
58%
28416-20976 (49392)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$1.45
Value
$1.47
PnL
+$0.02
Record
54%
56317-48476 (104793)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
57.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.