Spread: Rockets (-7.5)

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Mavericks (57%) · Mavericks at 54¢ · $4K held · ends Oct 31

Rockets47¢Mavericks53¢Ends Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Mavericks

Consensus Traders

Mavericks 57%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.9K

Combined PnL

$10.12

Smart Money Entry

53.8¢ → 53.5¢

-1% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidMavericks at 54%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Mavericks

4 of 7 top traders (57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Rockets47%

Mavericks54%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Mavericks4 traders

Total Value$884.35

Total Shares1,493

Combined PnL+$6.07

Rockets3 traders

Total Value$144.33

Total Shares311

Combined PnL+$4.05

Mavericks — 57%Rockets — 43%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Rocketsavg 45¢	$2.8K	$2.9K	+$35.96	54% 17115-14333 (31448)
└ Rockets leg	Rocketsavg 45¢	$1.6K	$1.7K	+$53.79
└ Mavericks leg	Mavericksavg 54.3¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	-$17.83
HE Herdonia	Mavericksavg 53.7¢	$603.11	$611.61	+$8.51	54% 3325-2874 (6199)
38 38791873984189	Mavericksavg 54¢	$235.98	$233.8	-$2.19	46% 7970-9410 (17380)
RN1CTR	Rocketsavg 45¢	$112.5	$116.25	+$3.75	54% 56317-48476 (104793)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Mavericksavg 54.6¢	$31.49	$31.17	-$0.32	58% 28416-20976 (49392)
PP ppku6298CTR<$100	Rocketsavg 46¢	$25.56	$25.83	+$0.28	45% 84-104 (188)
SU SunlineTicker<$100	Mavericksavg 54¢	$7.7	$7.77	+$0.07	62% 4127-2523 (6650)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Rocketsavg 45¢	$2.23	$2.25	+$0.02	47% 2262-2550 (4812)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Rockets

Invested

$2,826.34

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$35.96

Record

54%

17115-14333 (31448)

Both legs:

Rockets$1,613.5945¢+$53.79

Mavericks$1,212.7554.3¢-$17.83

Herdonia

Mavericks

Invested

$603.11

Value

$611.61

PnL

+$8.51

Record

54%

3325-2874 (6199)

38791873984189

Mavericks

Invested

$235.98

Value

$233.8

PnL

-$2.19

Record

46%

7970-9410 (17380)

RN1CTR

Rockets

Invested

$112.5

Value

$116.25

PnL

+$3.75

Record

54%

56317-48476 (104793)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$31.49

Value

$31.17

PnL

-$0.32

Record

58%

28416-20976 (49392)

ppku6298CTR<$100

Rockets

Invested

$25.56

Value

$25.83

PnL

+$0.28

Record

45%

84-104 (188)

SunlineTicker<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$7.7

Value

$7.77

PnL

+$0.07

Record

62%

4127-2523 (6650)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Rockets

Invested

$2.23

Value

$2.25

PnL

+$0.02

Record

47%

2262-2550 (4812)

Research grade

AvoidMavericks at 54%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Mavericks

4 of 7 top traders (57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Mavericks wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance55.7%

53.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$79.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

179.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.