Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Mavericks, while the market favors Rockets (51%). 6 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Rockets (-6.5)

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Mavericks (67%) · Mavericks at 50¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 31

Rockets51¢Mavericks49¢Ends Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Mavericks

Consensus Traders

Mavericks 67%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.8K

Combined PnL

$8.56

Smart Money Entry

51¢ → 49.5¢

-3% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidMavericks at 50%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Mavericks

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Rockets 51%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Rockets51%

Mavericks50%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Mavericks6 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares2,271

Combined PnL+$15.88

Rockets3 traders

Total Value$439.15

Total Shares911

Combined PnL-$7.31

Mavericks — 67%Rockets — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Mavericks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrMavericks 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedMavericks 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Mavericks 50% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VeryLucky888CTR	Mavericksavg 51¢	$510	$509.85	+$5.05	58% 41483-30105 (71588)
FF ff3364CTR	Mavericksavg 51¢	$300.39	$306.28	+$5.89	50% 795-799 (1594)
HE Herdonia	Rocketsavg 49¢	$276.66	$271.02	-$5.65	54% 3325-2874 (6199)
RN1CTR	Mavericksavg 50.5¢	$252.5	$257.5	+$5	54% 56314-48471 (104785)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Mavericksavg 50¢	$189.24	$193.85	+$4.61	46% 7925-9338 (17263)
└ Mavericks leg	Mavericksavg 50¢	$134.5	$138.54	+$4.03
└ Rockets leg	Rocketsavg 48¢	$54.74	$55.31	+$0.57
HO HomeRunHazard	Rocketsavg 48.9¢	$161.39	$159.98	-$1.41	54% 17115-14329 (31444)
OD OddstormCTR<$100	Mavericksavg 52¢	$82.58	$82.58	+$0	38% 377-619 (996)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Mavericksavg 52¢	$14.56	$14.56	-$0.14	58% 28411-20971 (49382)
FO Forecastication2<$100	Rocketsavg 50¢	$8.5	$8.16	-$0.26	50% 6968-6968 (13936)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Mavericksavg 50¢	$2.5	$2.58	+$0.08	47% 2255-2545 (4800)

VeryLucky888CTR

Mavericks

Invested

$510

Value

$509.85

PnL

+$5.05

Record

58%

41483-30105 (71588)

ff3364CTR

Mavericks

Invested

$300.39

Value

$306.28

PnL

+$5.89

Record

50%

795-799 (1594)

Herdonia

Rockets

Invested

$276.66

Value

$271.02

PnL

-$5.65

Record

54%

3325-2874 (6199)

RN1CTR

Mavericks

Invested

$252.5

Value

$257.5

PnL

+$5

Record

54%

56314-48471 (104785)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$189.24

Value

$193.85

PnL

+$4.61

Record

46%

7925-9338 (17263)

Both legs:

Mavericks$134.550¢+$4.03

Rockets$54.7448¢+$0.57

HomeRunHazard

Rockets

Invested

$161.39

Value

$159.98

PnL

-$1.41

Record

54%

17115-14329 (31444)

OddstormCTR<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$82.58

Value

$82.58

PnL

+$0

Record

38%

377-619 (996)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$14.56

Value

$14.56

PnL

-$0.14

Record

58%

28411-20971 (49382)

Forecastication2<$100

Rockets

Invested

$8.5

Value

$8.16

PnL

-$0.26

Record

50%

6968-6968 (13936)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$2.5

Value

$2.58

PnL

+$0.08

Record

47%

2255-2545 (4800)

Research grade

AvoidMavericks at 50%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Mavericks

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Rockets 51%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Mavericks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrMavericks 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedMavericks 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Mavericks 50% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Mavericks wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance51.7%

49.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$93.24

Max Loss

-$100.00

193.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.