Spread: Rockets (-5.5)
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Rockets (100%) · Rockets at 55¢ · $3K held · ends Oct 31
⚠️
Avoid
Rockets
6
Rockets 100%
1 arb excluded
$2.5K
$18.89
52.6¢ → 54.5¢
+4% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
AvoidRockets at 55%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | Rocketsavg 52.5¢ | $1.7K | $1.7K | +$17.94 | 54% 17115-14330 (31445) |
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989 | Rocketsavg 53¢ | $530 | $530 | -$0 | 53% 5576-4935 (10511) |
38 38791873984189ARB<$100 | Mavericksavg 46.9¢ | $180.88 | $177.32 | +$0.2 | 46% 7940-9367 (17307) |
| └ Mavericks leg | Mavericksavg 46.9¢ | $112.56 | $112.75 | +$0.2 | |
| └ Rockets leg | Rocketsavg 53¢ | $64.57 | $64.57 | -$0 | |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Rocketsavg 52.5¢ | $31.31 | $32.48 | +$1.17 | 57% 13599-10421 (24020) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Rocketsavg 53¢ | $18.23 | $18.23 | -$0 | 58% 28411-20972 (49383) |
OD Oddstorm<$100 | Rocketsavg 54¢ | $16.2 | $15.9 | -$0.15 | 38% 377-619 (996) |
FO Forecastication2<$100 | Rocketsavg 52.8¢ | $12.67 | $12.72 | -$0.07 | 50% 6968-6968 (13936) |
Invested
$1,711.5
Value
$1.7K
PnL
+$17.94
Record
54%
17115-14330 (31445)
Invested
$530
Value
$530
PnL
-$0
Record
53%
5576-4935 (10511)
Invested
$180.88
Value
$177.32
PnL
+$0.2
Record
46%
7940-9367 (17307)
Both legs:
Invested
$31.31
Value
$32.48
PnL
+$1.17
Record
57%
13599-10421 (24020)
Invested
$18.23
Value
$18.23
PnL
-$0
Record
58%
28411-20972 (49383)
Invested
$16.2
Value
$15.9
PnL
-$0.15
Record
38%
377-619 (996)
Invested
$12.67
Value
$12.72
PnL
-$0.07
Record
50%
6968-6968 (13936)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.