Spread: Rockets (-4.5)

5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Rockets (71%) · Rockets at 55¢ · $3K held · ends Oct 31

Rockets55¢Mavericks45¢Ends Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Rockets

Consensus Traders

Rockets 71%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.1K

Combined PnL

$45.73

Smart Money Entry

55.6¢ → 54.5¢

-2% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidRockets at 55%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Rockets

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Rockets55%

Mavericks46%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Rockets5 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares1,947

Combined PnL+$43.93

Mavericks2 traders

Total Value$51.43

Total Shares115

Combined PnL+$1.8

Rockets — 71%Mavericks — 29%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+20 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Rockets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrRockets 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedRockets 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Rockets 50% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Mavericksavg 45.3¢	$1.6K	$1.5K	-$37.28	54% 17124-14337 (31461)
└ Mavericks leg	Mavericksavg 45.3¢	$888.5	$823.68	-$64.82
└ Rockets leg	Rocketsavg 55.7¢	$675.71	$703.26	+$27.55
RN1	Rocketsavg 56¢	$560	$580	+$20	54% 56379-48535 (104914)
FO forecastication4	Rocketsavg 55¢	$463.1	$488.36	+$25.26	49% 1151-1188 (2339)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Rocketsavg 57.6¢	$411.45	$411.96	+$0.51	46% 8071-9516 (17587)
└ Rockets leg	Rocketsavg 57.6¢	$325.94	$328.2	+$2.26
└ Mavericks leg	Mavericksavg 42.9¢	$85.51	$83.76	-$1.75
HRTradingCTR<$100	Mavericksavg 43¢	$37.72	$39.93	+$2.21	52% 4099-3733 (7832)
NA NatoAlfista<$100	Rocketsavg 58¢	$28.71	$28.71	+$0	50% 3806-3765 (7571)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Rocketsavg 56.9¢	$28.51	$27.31	-$1.2	58% 28450-21016 (49466)
OD OddstormCTR<$100	Mavericksavg 44¢	$11.91	$11.5	-$0.41	38% 383-624 (1007)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Rocketsavg 57¢	$2.85	$2.73	-$0.13	47% 2290-2563 (4853)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$1,564.22

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$37.28

Record

54%

17124-14337 (31461)

Both legs:

Mavericks$888.545.3¢-$64.82

Rockets$675.7155.7¢+$27.55

RN1

Rockets

Invested

$560

Value

$580

PnL

+$20

Record

54%

56379-48535 (104914)

forecastication4

Rockets

Invested

$463.1

Value

$488.36

PnL

+$25.26

Record

49%

1151-1188 (2339)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Rockets

Invested

$411.45

Value

$411.96

PnL

+$0.51

Record

46%

8071-9516 (17587)

Both legs:

Rockets$325.9457.6¢+$2.26

Mavericks$85.5142.9¢-$1.75

HRTradingCTR<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$37.72

Value

$39.93

PnL

+$2.21

Record

52%

4099-3733 (7832)

NatoAlfista<$100

Rockets

Invested

$28.71

Value

$28.71

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

3806-3765 (7571)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Rockets

Invested

$28.51

Value

$27.31

PnL

-$1.2

Record

58%

28450-21016 (49466)

OddstormCTR<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$11.91

Value

$11.5

PnL

-$0.41

Record

38%

383-624 (1007)

ameisgoat11<$100

Rockets

Invested

$2.85

Value

$2.73

PnL

-$0.13

Record

47%

2290-2563 (4853)

Research grade

AvoidRockets at 55%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Rockets

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+20 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Rockets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrRockets 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedRockets 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Rockets 50% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Rockets wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance56.7%

54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$76.26

Max Loss

-$100.00

176.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.