Spread: Rockets (-3.5)
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Rockets (100%) · Rockets at 60¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 31
⚠️
Avoid
Rockets
5
Rockets 100%
$1.6K
-$147.06
58¢ → 59.5¢
+3% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidRockets at 60%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | Rocketsavg 58¢ | $1.6K | $1.5K | -$137.33 | 54% 17065-14298 (31363) |
0D 0x0d2d...7ff5<$100 | Rocketsavg 58¢ | $92.22 | $84.27 | -$7.95 | 46% 7787-9202 (16989) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Rocketsavg 58¢ | $12.93 | $11.82 | -$1.11 | 57% 13509-10335 (23844) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Rocketsavg 58¢ | $8.7 | $7.95 | -$0.75 | 58% 28351-20930 (49281) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Rocketsavg 58¢ | $3.26 | $3.35 | +$0.08 | 58% 41434-30051 (71485) |
Invested
$1,593
Value
$1.5K
PnL
-$137.33
Record
54%
17065-14298 (31363)
Invested
$92.22
Value
$84.27
PnL
-$7.95
Record
46%
7787-9202 (16989)
Invested
$12.93
Value
$11.82
PnL
-$1.11
Record
57%
13509-10335 (23844)
Invested
$8.7
Value
$7.95
PnL
-$0.75
Record
58%
28351-20930 (49281)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$3.26
Value
$3.35
PnL
+$0.08
Record
58%
41434-30051 (71485)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
59.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.