Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Mavericks, while the market favors Rockets (57%). 6 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Rockets (-2.5)

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Mavericks (67%) · Mavericks at 43¢ · $717 held · ended Oct 31

Rockets57¢Mavericks43¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Mavericks

Consensus Traders

Mavericks 67%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$717

Combined PnL

-$12.19

Smart Money Entry

43.4¢ → 43¢

-1% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidMavericks at 43%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Mavericks

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Rockets 57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Rockets57%

Mavericks43%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Rockets3 traders

Total Value$215.11

Total Shares403

Combined PnL+$14.2

Mavericks6 traders

Total Value$262.45

Total Shares665

Combined PnL-$26.38

Rockets — 33%Mavericks — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Mavericksavg 40¢	$242.85	$239.43	-$3.42	46% 8113-9541 (17654)
└ Mavericks leg	Mavericksavg 40¢	$156.4	$152.49	-$3.91
└ Rockets leg	Rocketsavg 59.7¢	$86.45	$86.94	+$0.49
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Rocketsavg 49¢	$110.43	$117.06	+$6.64	48% 788-869 (1657)
RN1CTR	Mavericksavg 40¢	$102.58	$102.65	+$0.07	54% 56399-48569 (104968)
JU justaluckydudeCTR	Mavericksavg 47.3¢	$115.32	$93.94	-$21.38	54% 10681-9281 (19962)
TA takeormake<$100	Rocketsavg 51¢	$80.14	$81.64	+$1.5	53% 4002-3482 (7484)
TO torta.techCTR<$100	Mavericksavg 45¢	$44.1	$39.2	-$4.9	63% 8107-4853 (12960)
HRTrading<$100	Rocketsavg 43.9¢	$10.35	$16.41	+$6.06	53% 4191-3790 (7981)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Mavericksavg 39¢	$14.04	$14.4	+$0.36	58% 28489-21037 (49526)
OD OddstormCTR<$100	Mavericksavg 40¢	$10.26	$10.26	-$0.13	38% 383-625 (1008)
0X 0xe3eeb127d5763a6e4ad597f773f9d9c94d5176CTR<$100	Mavericksavg 48¢	$2.4	$2	-$0.4	53% 6124-5371 (11495)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$242.85

Value

$239.43

PnL

-$3.42

Record

46%

8113-9541 (17654)

Both legs:

Mavericks$156.440¢-$3.91

Rockets$86.4559.7¢+$0.49

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Rockets

Invested

$110.43

Value

$117.06

PnL

+$6.64

Record

48%

788-869 (1657)

RN1CTR

Mavericks

Invested

$102.58

Value

$102.65

PnL

+$0.07

Record

54%

56399-48569 (104968)

justaluckydudeCTR

Mavericks

Invested

$115.32

Value

$93.94

PnL

-$21.38

Record

54%

10681-9281 (19962)

takeormake<$100

Rockets

Invested

$80.14

Value

$81.64

PnL

+$1.5

Record

53%

4002-3482 (7484)

torta.techCTR<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$44.1

Value

$39.2

PnL

-$4.9

Record

63%

8107-4853 (12960)

HRTrading<$100

Rockets

Invested

$10.35

Value

$16.41

PnL

+$6.06

Record

53%

4191-3790 (7981)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$14.04

Value

$14.4

PnL

+$0.36

Record

58%

28489-21037 (49526)

OddstormCTR<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$10.26

Value

$10.26

PnL

-$0.13

Record

38%

383-625 (1008)

0xe3eeb127d5763a6e4ad597f773f9d9c94d5176CTR<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$2.4

Value

PnL

-$0.4

Record

53%

6124-5371 (11495)

Research grade

AvoidMavericks at 43%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Mavericks

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Rockets 57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Mavericks wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance45.2%

43.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$121.08

Max Loss

-$100.00

221.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.