Rockets vs. Mavericks

11 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Rockets (100%) · Rockets at 68¢ · $12K held · ends Oct 31

Rockets68¢Mavericks32¢Ends Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Rockets

Consensus Traders

Rockets 100%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$11.8K

Combined PnL

$531.86

Smart Money Entry

63.6¢ → 67.5¢

+6% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

AvoidRockets at 68%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Rockets

11 of 11 top traders (100%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Rockets68%

Mavericks33%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Rockets11 traders

Total Value$11.2K

Total Shares16,390

Combined PnL+$531.86

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+8 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 44%

Freshness

Mature

21h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

100% of non-arb traders are on Rockets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 44% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleRockets 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrRockets 100% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedRockets 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Rockets 100% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DO DolphinBaller	Rocketsavg 62.3¢	$2.9K	$3.1K	+$240.94	47% 92-103 (195)
RollAwayTheDew	Rocketsavg 63¢	$1.7K	$1.8K	+$92.65	52% 374-339 (713)
AA aaabbb	Rocketsavg 62.1¢	$1.5K	$1.6K	+$57.32	50% 443-444 (887)
scootergene	Rocketsavg 63¢	$1.5K	$1.6K	+$104.18	54% 371-318 (689)
VeryLucky888	Rocketsavg 67¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$8.8	58% 41471-30089 (71560)
TA takeormake	Rocketsavg 67.1¢	$977.39	$983.49	+$6.1	53% 4002-3481 (7483)
OD Oddstorm	Rocketsavg 65.2¢	$777.19	$792.52	+$15.33	38% 375-618 (993)
BU BullishBarbARB<$100	Rocketsavg 62.3¢	$332.08	$329.96	-$2.12	43% 3555-4792 (8347)
└ Rockets leg	Rocketsavg 62.3¢	$213.04	$230.78	+$17.71
└ Mavericks leg	Mavericksavg 39¢	$119.01	$99.18	-$19.84
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Rocketsavg 67¢	$323.8	$321.19	-$2.61	46% 7894-9296 (17190)
└ Rockets leg	Rocketsavg 67¢	$178.85	$180.19	+$1.34
└ Mavericks leg	Mavericksavg 33.4¢	$144.96	$141	-$3.95
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Rocketsavg 63.1¢	$71.62	$73.03	+$2.07	58% 28402-20964 (49366)
BB bbbetk<$100	Rocketsavg 60¢	$30.32	$34.11	+$3.79	50% 149-147 (296)
0xheavy888<$100	Rocketsavg 66¢	$13.2	$13.5	+$0.3	56% 7050-5652 (12702)
poshposh<$100	Rocketsavg 62¢	$9.6	$10.38	+$0.39	59% 9898-6873 (16771)

DolphinBaller

Rockets

Invested

$2,862.92

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$240.94

Record

47%

92-103 (195)

RollAwayTheDew

Rockets

Invested

$1,667.59

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$92.65

Record

52%

374-339 (713)

aaabbb

Rockets

Invested

$1,498.95

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$57.32

Record

50%

443-444 (887)

scootergene

Rockets

Invested

$1,458.56

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$104.18

Record

54%

371-318 (689)

VeryLucky888

Rockets

Invested

$1,178.83

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$8.8

Record

58%

41471-30089 (71560)

takeormake

Rockets

Invested

$977.39

Value

$983.49

PnL

+$6.1

Record

53%

4002-3481 (7483)

Oddstorm

Rockets

Invested

$777.19

Value

$792.52

PnL

+$15.33

Record

38%

375-618 (993)

BullishBarbARB<$100

Rockets

Invested

$332.08

Value

$329.96

PnL

-$2.12

Record

43%

3555-4792 (8347)

Both legs:

Rockets$213.0462.3¢+$17.71

Mavericks$119.0139¢-$19.84

38791873984189ARB<$100

Rockets

Invested

$323.8

Value

$321.19

PnL

-$2.61

Record

46%

7894-9296 (17190)

Both legs:

Rockets$178.8567¢+$1.34

Mavericks$144.9633.4¢-$3.95

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Rockets

Invested

$71.62

Value

$73.03

PnL

+$2.07

Record

58%

28402-20964 (49366)

bbbetk<$100

Rockets

Invested

$30.32

Value

$34.11

PnL

+$3.79

Record

50%

149-147 (296)

0xheavy888<$100

Rockets

Invested

$13.2

Value

$13.5

PnL

+$0.3

Record

56%

7050-5652 (12702)

poshposh<$100

Rockets

Invested

$9.6

Value

$10.38

PnL

+$0.39

Record

59%

9898-6873 (16771)

Research grade

AvoidRockets at 68%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Rockets

11 of 11 top traders (100%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+8 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 44%

Freshness

Mature

21h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

100% of non-arb traders are on Rockets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 44% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleRockets 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrRockets 100% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedRockets 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Rockets 100% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Rockets wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance69.6%

67.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$43.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

143.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.