Warriors vs. Pelicans

3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Pelicans (38%) · Pelicans at 56¢ · $7K held · ends Nov 17

Warriors44¢Pelicans56¢Ends Tue, Nov 17, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Pelicans

Consensus Traders

Pelicans 38%

Total Value

$7.2K

Combined PnL

-$0.82

Smart Money Entry

55.8¢ → 56.5¢

+1% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidPelicans at 56%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Pelicans

3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Warriors44%

Pelicans56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Pelicans3 traders

Total Value$4.0K

Total Shares7,094

Combined PnL+$83.43

Warriors5 traders

Total Value$3.1K

Total Shares7,310

Combined PnL-$84.25

Pelicans — 38%Warriors — 62%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+9 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Pelicans. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrPelicans 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Warriors 63% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TY Tys0n8686	Pelicansavg 55.9¢	$3.9K	$4.0K	+$79.18	— 5-5 (10)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Warriorsavg 44¢	$1.7K	$1.6K	-$37.35	50% 3549-3506 (7055)
GA GaditimaCTR	Warriorsavg 44.4¢	$1.2K	$1.1K	-$36.1	46% 170-197 (367)
RollAwayTheDewCTR	Warriorsavg 44¢	$372.24	$363.78	-$8.46	16% 49-253 (302)
nigiri99<$100	Pelicansavg 57¢	$43.89	$43.5	-$0.39	52% 367-339 (706)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Warriorsavg 45.6¢	$41.26	$38.92	-$2.34	49% 1088-1142 (2230)
38 38791873984189<$100	Pelicansavg 29¢	$4.8	$9.43	+$4.63	48% 2298-2502 (4800)
0X 0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69CTR<$100	Warriorsavg 43¢	$3.44	$3.44	+$0	54% 94-79 (173)

Tys0n8686

Pelicans

Invested

$3,910.82

Value

$4.0K

PnL

+$79.18

Record

—

5-5 (10)

6512395314597884CTR

Warriors

Invested

$1,655.83

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$37.35

Record

50%

3549-3506 (7055)

GaditimaCTR

Warriors

Invested

$1,154.6

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$36.1

Record

46%

170-197 (367)

RollAwayTheDewCTR

Warriors

Invested

$372.24

Value

$363.78

PnL

-$8.46

Record

16%

49-253 (302)

nigiri99<$100

Pelicans

Invested

$43.89

Value

$43.5

PnL

-$0.39

Record

52%

367-339 (706)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Warriors

Invested

$41.26

Value

$38.92

PnL

-$2.34

Record

49%

1088-1142 (2230)

38791873984189<$100

Pelicans

Invested

$4.8

Value

$9.43

PnL

+$4.63

Record

48%

2298-2502 (4800)

0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69CTR<$100

Warriors

Invested

$3.44

Value

$3.44

PnL

+$0

Record

54%

94-79 (173)

Research grade

AvoidPelicans at 56%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Pelicans

3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+9 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Pelicans. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrPelicans 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Warriors 63% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Pelicans wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance58.7%

56.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$70.29

Max Loss

-$100.00

170.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.