Warriors vs. Timberwolves: O/U 232.5
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 59¢ · $4K held · ended Oct 29
⚠️
Avoid
Under
6
Under 50%
$3.8K
$35.09
54¢ → 58.5¢
+8% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 59%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | Underavg 54.8¢ | $2.8K | $2.8K | +$14.98 | 54% 16884-14152 (31036) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh | Underavg 51.5¢ | $709.35 | $765.3 | +$55.94 | 49% 559-583 (1142) |
TA takeormakeCTR | Overavg 47¢ | $195.99 | $177.23 | -$18.77 | 54% 3824-3298 (7122) |
JU justaluckydudeCTR<$100 | Overavg 56¢ | $68.32 | $51.85 | -$16.47 | 54% 10476-9103 (19579) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Overavg 46¢ | $6.86 | $6.34 | -$0.52 | 53% 3243-2909 (6152) |
SU SunlineTicker<$100 | Underavg 59¢ | $2.95 | $2.88 | -$0.08 | 62% 4023-2463 (6486) |
Invested
$2,757.41
Value
$2.8K
PnL
+$14.98
Record
54%
16884-14152 (31036)
Invested
$709.35
Value
$765.3
PnL
+$55.94
Record
49%
559-583 (1142)
Invested
$195.99
Value
$177.23
PnL
-$18.77
Record
54%
3824-3298 (7122)
Invested
$68.32
Value
$51.85
PnL
-$16.47
Record
54%
10476-9103 (19579)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$6.86
Value
$6.34
PnL
-$0.52
Record
53%
3243-2909 (6152)
Invested
$2.95
Value
$2.88
PnL
-$0.08
Record
62%
4023-2463 (6486)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
58.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.