Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (51%). 4 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Warriors vs. Timberwolves: O/U 230.5

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Over (44%) · Over at 50¢ · $8K held · ended Oct 29

Over50¢Under50¢Ended Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 44%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$7.8K

Combined PnL

$233.97

Smart Money Entry

44.3¢ → 49.5¢

+12% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 50%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 9 top traders (44%)Underdog side (market favors Under 51%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over50%

Under51%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over4 traders

Total Value$5.5K

Total Shares9,894

Combined PnL+$357.77

Under5 traders

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares3,669

Combined PnL-$123.8

Over — 44%Under — 56%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Overavg 43.5¢	$4.3K	$4.5K	+$166.78	54% 16884-14152 (31036)
GA gagarin59	Underavg 58¢	$1.9K	$1.8K	-$116.6	52% 657-608 (1265)
TA takeormakeCTR	Overavg 48.4¢	$723.13	$910.55	+$187.42	54% 3824-3298 (7122)
BU BullishBarbARB<$100	Underavg 47.6¢	$304.16	$332.38	+$13.57	43% 2996-4016 (7012)
└ Under leg	Underavg 47.6¢	$199.24	$211.6	+$12.35
└ Over leg	Overavg 43¢	$104.92	$120.78	+$1.22
TO torta.tech	Underavg 60¢	$168	$161	-$7	63% 7985-4775 (12760)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Overavg 49.3¢	$76.77	$79.44	+$2.67	49% 559-583 (1142)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Underavg 54¢	$13.78	$14.5	+$0.73	58% 28159-20759 (48918)
MI mishipolisCTR<$100	Overavg 47¢	$9.1	$10	+$0.9	50% 4446-4371 (8817)
HRTrading<$100	Underavg 60.4¢	$9.08	$8.64	-$0.44	53% 3243-2909 (6152)
0X 0xe3eeb127d5763a6e4ad597f773f9d9c94d5176<$100	Underavg 61¢	$8.54	$8.05	-$0.49	53% 6109-5348 (11457)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Over

Invested

$4,342.6

Value

$4.5K

PnL

+$166.78

Record

54%

16884-14152 (31036)

gagarin59

Under

Invested

$1,932.25

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$116.6

Record

52%

657-608 (1265)

takeormakeCTR

Over

Invested

$723.13

Value

$910.55

PnL

+$187.42

Record

54%

3824-3298 (7122)

BullishBarbARB<$100

Under

Invested

$304.16

Value

$332.38

PnL

+$13.57

Record

43%

2996-4016 (7012)

Both legs:

Under$199.2447.6¢+$12.35

Over$104.9243¢+$1.22

torta.tech

Under

Invested

$168

Value

$161

PnL

-$7

Record

63%

7985-4775 (12760)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$76.77

Value

$79.44

PnL

+$2.67

Record

49%

559-583 (1142)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Under

Invested

$13.78

Value

$14.5

PnL

+$0.73

Record

58%

28159-20759 (48918)

mishipolisCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$9.1

Value

$10

PnL

+$0.9

Record

50%

4446-4371 (8817)

HRTrading<$100

Under

Invested

$9.08

Value

$8.64

PnL

-$0.44

Record

53%

3243-2909 (6152)

0xe3eeb127d5763a6e4ad597f773f9d9c94d5176<$100

Under

Invested

$8.54

Value

$8.05

PnL

-$0.49

Record

53%

6109-5348 (11457)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 50%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 9 top traders (44%)Underdog side (market favors Under 51%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance51.7%

49.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$93.24

Max Loss

-$100.00

193.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.