Warriors vs. Timberwolves: O/U 228.5

2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (40%) · Over at 51¢ · $1K held · ends Oct 29

Over51¢Under49¢Ends Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 40%

Total Value

$1.3K

Combined PnL

$50.46

Smart Money Entry

49.2¢ → 50.5¢

+3% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 51%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over51%

Under50%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over2 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares1,982

Combined PnL+$36.41

Under3 traders

Total Value$328.81

Total Shares654

Combined PnL+$14.04

Over — 40%Under — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Overavg 49.1¢	$850.38	$883.47	+$33.09	54% 16846-14132 (30978)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR	Underavg 47¢	$253.04	$263.81	+$13.46	53% 5495-4840 (10335)
VeryLucky888	Overavg 50¢	$173.84	$126.25	+$3.33	58% 40728-29460 (70188)
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100	Underavg 49¢	$40.67	$40.67	+$0.42	50% 6790-6820 (13610)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Underavg 47¢	$23.83	$24.33	+$0.17	58% 28094-20712 (48806)

HomeRunHazard

Over

Invested

$850.38

Value

$883.47

PnL

+$33.09

Record

54%

16846-14132 (30978)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR

Under

Invested

$253.04

Value

$263.81

PnL

+$13.46

Record

53%

5495-4840 (10335)

VeryLucky888

Over

Invested

$173.84

Value

$126.25

PnL

+$3.33

Record

58%

40728-29460 (70188)

Forecastication2CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$40.67

Value

$40.67

PnL

+$0.42

Record

50%

6790-6820 (13610)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$23.83

Value

$24.33

PnL

+$0.17

Record

58%

28094-20712 (48806)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 51%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance52.7%

50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$89.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

189.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.