Warriors vs. Timberwolves: O/U 227.5

4 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Over (36%) · Over at 54¢ · $6K held · ends Oct 29

Over54¢Under46¢Ends Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 36%

Total Value

$6.1K

Combined PnL

$104.28

Smart Money Entry

54¢ → 54¢

+0% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 54%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 11 top traders (36%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over54%

Under46%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over4 traders

Total Value$5.0K

Total Shares9,110

Combined PnL+$116.57

Under7 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares2,422

Combined PnL-$12.29

Over — 36%Under — 64%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

36% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrUnder 75% · 8

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Under 60% · 10

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
IC ic4cream	Overavg 54¢	$4.3K	$4.4K	+$81.34	59% 2601-1831 (4432)
nigiri99	Overavg 55¢	$314.05	$548.35	+$29.2	—
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR	Underavg 46¢	$460	$450	-$10	53% 5485-4833 (10318)
VeryLucky888CTR	Underavg 45¢	$234.49	$234.49	+$0	58% 40677-29411 (70088)
BO BoomLaLaCTR	Underavg 45.3¢	$187.18	$186.05	-$1.13	53% 11431-9962 (21393)
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR	Underavg 44¢	$158.95	$162.57	+$3.61	47% 2391-2670 (5061)
BA Bayupati<$100	Overavg 54¢	$59.67	$60.78	+$1.11	51% 192-187 (379)
RollAwayTheDew<$100	Overavg 49¢	$40.18	$45.1	+$4.92	52% 307-281 (588)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Underavg 48.6¢	$45.65	$42.3	-$3.35	58% 28040-20670 (48710)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Underavg 52¢	$20	$9	-$1.4	56% 6870-5503 (12373)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Underavg 45.6¢	$5.61	$5.6	-$0.01	53% 2956-2611 (5567)

ic4cream

Over

Invested

$4,275.18

Value

$4.4K

PnL

+$81.34

Record

59%

2601-1831 (4432)

nigiri99

Over

Invested

$314.05

Value

$548.35

PnL

+$29.2

Record

—

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR

Under

Invested

$460

Value

$450

PnL

-$10

Record

53%

5485-4833 (10318)

VeryLucky888CTR

Under

Invested

$234.49

Value

$234.49

PnL

+$0

Record

58%

40677-29411 (70088)

BoomLaLaCTR

Under

Invested

$187.18

Value

$186.05

PnL

-$1.13

Record

53%

11431-9962 (21393)

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR

Under

Invested

$158.95

Value

$162.57

PnL

+$3.61

Record

47%

2391-2670 (5061)

Bayupati<$100

Over

Invested

$59.67

Value

$60.78

PnL

+$1.11

Record

51%

192-187 (379)

RollAwayTheDew<$100

Over

Invested

$40.18

Value

$45.1

PnL

+$4.92

Record

52%

307-281 (588)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$45.65

Value

$42.3

PnL

-$3.35

Record

58%

28040-20670 (48710)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$20

Value

PnL

-$1.4

Record

56%

6870-5503 (12373)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$5.61

Value

$5.6

PnL

-$0.01

Record

53%

2956-2611 (5567)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 54%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 11 top traders (36%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

36% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrUnder 75% · 8

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Under 60% · 10

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance56.2%

54.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$77.82

Max Loss

-$100.00

177.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.