Warriors vs. Timberwolves: O/U 226.5

1 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (17%) · Over at 54¢ · $426 held · ends Oct 29

Over54¢Under46¢Ends Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 17%

Total Value

$425.52

Combined PnL

$0.79

Research grade

AvoidOver at 54%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

1 of 6 top traders (17%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over54%

Under47%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over1 trader

Total Value$300.12

Total Shares561

Combined PnL+$2.8

Under5 traders

Total Value$125.4

Total Shares243

Combined PnL-$2.02

Over — 17%Under — 83%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BU BullishBarb	Overavg 53¢	$297.31	$300.12	+$2.8	38% 848-1408 (2256)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100	Underavg 50.6¢	$60.06	$55.18	-$4.88	54% 16864-14141 (31005)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Underavg 47.2¢	$31.74	$30.3	-$1.13	58% 28121-20725 (48846)
RollAwayTheDewCTR<$100	Underavg 46¢	$16.81	$15.71	+$0	52% 317-288 (605)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Underavg 43¢	$44.68	$15.61	+$3.99	58% 40752-29469 (70221)
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100	Underavg 43¢	$8.6	$8.6	+$0	50% 6813-6826 (13639)

BullishBarb

Over

Invested

$297.31

Value

$300.12

PnL

+$2.8

Record

38%

848-1408 (2256)

HomeRunHazardCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$60.06

Value

$55.18

PnL

-$4.88

Record

54%

16864-14141 (31005)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$31.74

Value

$30.3

PnL

-$1.13

Record

58%

28121-20725 (48846)

RollAwayTheDewCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$16.81

Value

$15.71

PnL

+$0

Record

52%

317-288 (605)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$44.68

Value

$15.61

PnL

+$3.99

Record

58%

40752-29469 (70221)

Forecastication2CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$8.6

Value

$8.6

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

6813-6826 (13639)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 54%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Over

1 of 6 top traders (17%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance55.7%

53.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$79.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

179.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.