Warriors vs. Timberwolves: O/U 222.5
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (60%) · Over at 64¢ · $962 held · ends Oct 29
⚠️
Avoid
Over
5
Over 60%
$962.45
$50.75
58.5¢ → 63.5¢
+9% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 64%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 97%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 nigiri99 | Overavg 59¢ | $472 | $512 | +$40 | — |
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR | Underavg 41¢ | $328 | $328 | +$0 | 53% 5485-4833 (10318) |
 RollAwayTheDew<$100 | Overavg 55¢ | $82.1 | $92.55 | +$10.45 | 52% 307-281 (588) |
BA Bayupati<$100 | Overavg 60.6¢ | $21.2 | $21.7 | +$0.5 | 51% 192-187 (379) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Underavg 42¢ | $8.39 | $8.19 | -$0.2 | 58% 28040-20670 (48710) |
nigiri99Invested
$472
Value
$512
PnL
+$40
Record
—
Invested
$328
Value
$328
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
5485-4833 (10318)
RollAwayTheDew<$100Invested
$82.1
Value
$92.55
PnL
+$10.45
Record
52%
307-281 (588)
Invested
$21.2
Value
$21.7
PnL
+$0.5
Record
51%
192-187 (379)
Invested
$8.39
Value
$8.19
PnL
-$0.2
Record
58%
28040-20670 (48710)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
63.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.