Spread: Timberwolves (-5.5)
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Warriors (40%) · Warriors at 92¢ · $10K held · ended Oct 29
⚠️
Avoid
Warriors
5
Warriors 40%
2 arb excluded
$9.8K
$1.4K
56.5¢ → 91.5¢
+62% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidWarriors at 92%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
33% of non-arb traders are on Warriors. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888 | Warriorsavg 56.5¢ | $4.6K | $5.9K | +$1.4K | 58% 40917-29601 (70518) |
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100 | Warriorsavg 55.5¢ | $3.2K | $3.2K | -$44.8 | 54% 16884-14152 (31036) |
| └ Warriors leg | Warriorsavg 55.5¢ | $1.7K | $2.3K | +$560.03 | |
| └ Timberwolves leg | Timberwolvesavg 44.3¢ | $1.5K | $901.83 | -$604.83 | |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100 | Timberwolvesavg 44.3¢ | $659.65 | $605.59 | -$54.07 | 49% 559-583 (1142) |
| └ Warriors leg | Warriorsavg 53¢ | $267.26 | $370.63 | +$103.37 | |
| └ Timberwolves leg | Timberwolvesavg 44.3¢ | $392.39 | $234.95 | -$157.44 | |
 HRTrading<$100 | Warriorsavg 61¢ | $37.72 | $38.16 | +$0.44 | 53% 3243-2909 (6152) |
NA NatoAlfistaCTR<$100 | Timberwolvesavg 45¢ | $24.75 | $24.75 | -$0.28 | 50% 3721-3695 (7416) |
AN Anon455CTR<$100 | Timberwolvesavg 43¢ | $17.41 | $15.87 | -$1.53 | 56% 2651-2105 (4756) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Timberwolvesavg 41¢ | $1.42 | $1.56 | +$0.12 | 58% 28159-20759 (48918) |
VeryLucky888Invested
$4,552.13
Value
$5.9K
PnL
+$1.4K
Record
58%
40917-29601 (70518)
Invested
$3,234.69
Value
$3.2K
PnL
-$44.8
Record
54%
16884-14152 (31036)
Both legs:
Invested
$659.65
Value
$605.59
PnL
-$54.07
Record
49%
559-583 (1142)
Both legs:
HRTrading<$100Invested
$37.72
Value
$38.16
PnL
+$0.44
Record
53%
3243-2909 (6152)
Invested
$24.75
Value
$24.75
PnL
-$0.28
Record
50%
3721-3695 (7416)
Invested
$17.41
Value
$15.87
PnL
-$1.53
Record
56%
2651-2105 (4756)
Invested
$1.42
Value
$1.56
PnL
+$0.12
Record
58%
28159-20759 (48918)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
91.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.