Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Warriors, while the market favors Timberwolves (53%). 4 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: Timberwolves (-3.5)
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Warriors (57%) · Warriors at 48¢ · $11K held · ends Oct 29
⚠️
Avoid
Warriors
7
Warriors 57%
$11.5K
$14.05
48.2¢ → 47.5¢
-1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidWarriors at 48%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors Timberwolves 53%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | Timberwolvesavg 51.8¢ | $5.5K | $5.5K | +$77.39 | 54% 16868-14145 (31013) |
 ComingBackCTR | Warriorsavg 48¢ | $4.7K | $4.7K | -$49.25 | 61% 3850-2418 (6268) |
SU SunlineTickerCTR | Warriorsavg 48.2¢ | $683.9 | $681.6 | -$2.3 | 62% 4022-2462 (6484) |
QW QWUERHAIUKSJNFSNCFCTR | Warriorsavg 51¢ | $306 | $288 | -$15 | 54% 375-322 (697) |
FO Forecastication2 | Timberwolvesavg 51.7¢ | $252.73 | $256.42 | +$3.69 | 50% 6813-6827 (13640) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Warriorsavg 50¢ | $39.33 | $38.26 | -$0.51 | 58% 28123-20732 (48855) |
HI hi774c<$100 | Timberwolvesavg 52¢ | $2.45 | $2.47 | +$0.02 | 52% 4656-4365 (9021) |
Invested
$5,457.68
Value
$5.5K
PnL
+$77.39
Record
54%
16868-14145 (31013)
ComingBackCTRInvested
$4,727.52
Value
$4.7K
PnL
-$49.25
Record
61%
3850-2418 (6268)
Invested
$683.9
Value
$681.6
PnL
-$2.3
Record
62%
4022-2462 (6484)
Invested
$306
Value
$288
PnL
-$15
Record
54%
375-322 (697)
Invested
$252.73
Value
$256.42
PnL
+$3.69
Record
50%
6813-6827 (13640)
Invested
$39.33
Value
$38.26
PnL
-$0.51
Record
58%
28123-20732 (48855)
Invested
$2.45
Value
$2.47
PnL
+$0.02
Record
52%
4656-4365 (9021)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
47.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.