Spread: Timberwolves (-1.5)
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Timberwolves (33%) · Timberwolves at 59¢ · $3K held · ends Oct 29
⚠️
Avoid
Timberwolves
6
Timberwolves 33%
$3.2K
-$105.86
58.1¢ → 59¢
+2% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidTimberwolves at 59%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | Timberwolvesavg 58¢ | $2.6K | $2.5K | -$139.68 | 54% 16864-14141 (31005) |
 RN1 | Timberwolvesavg 59¢ | $281.85 | $281.85 | -$0 | 54% 55711-47797 (103508) |
SU SunlineTickerCTR | Warriorsavg 42¢ | $258.72 | $280.28 | +$21.56 | 62% 4022-2462 (6484) |
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR | Warriorsavg 42¢ | $146.14 | $158.32 | +$12.18 | 53% 5499-4842 (10341) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Warriorsavg 41¢ | $1.23 | $1.23 | +$0 | 53% 3047-2709 (5756) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Warriorsavg 42¢ | $0.95 | $1.03 | +$0.08 | 58% 40752-29469 (70221) |
Invested
$2,646.14
Value
$2.5K
PnL
-$139.68
Record
54%
16864-14141 (31005)
RN1Invested
$281.85
Value
$281.85
PnL
-$0
Record
54%
55711-47797 (103508)
Invested
$258.72
Value
$280.28
PnL
+$21.56
Record
62%
4022-2462 (6484)
Invested
$146.14
Value
$158.32
PnL
+$12.18
Record
53%
5499-4842 (10341)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$1.23
Value
$1.23
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
3047-2709 (5756)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$0.95
Value
$1.03
PnL
+$0.08
Record
58%
40752-29469 (70221)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
59.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.