Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Timberwolves, while the market favors Warriors (69%). 4 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Spread: Warriors (-5.5)
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Timberwolves (67%) · Timberwolves at 32¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 29
⚠️
Avoid
Timberwolves
6
Timberwolves 67%
$2.6K
-$309.94
36.7¢ → 31.5¢
-14% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidTimberwolves at 32%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Warriors 69%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Timberwolvesavg 58¢ | $2.0K | $1.7K | -$285.12 | 54% 16884-14152 (31036) |
TA takeormakeCTR | Timberwolvesavg 15.3¢ | $451.19 | $515.2 | +$64.01 | 54% 3824-3298 (7122) |
QW QWUERHAIUKSJNFSNCF | Warriorsavg 56¢ | $335.99 | $299.99 | -$36 | 54% 375-323 (698) |
BU BullishBarbCTR<$100 | Timberwolvesavg 44¢ | $66 | $75 | +$9 | 43% 2996-4016 (7012) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR | Timberwolvesavg 46¢ | $82.48 | $18.95 | -$63.53 | 49% 559-583 (1142) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Warriorsavg 42¢ | $8.95 | $10.65 | +$1.7 | 53% 3243-2909 (6152) |
Invested
$1,995.23
Value
$1.7K
PnL
-$285.12
Record
54%
16884-14152 (31036)
Invested
$451.19
Value
$515.2
PnL
+$64.01
Record
54%
3824-3298 (7122)
Invested
$335.99
Value
$299.99
PnL
-$36
Record
54%
375-323 (698)
Invested
$66
Value
$75
PnL
+$9
Record
43%
2996-4016 (7012)
Invested
$82.48
Value
$18.95
PnL
-$63.53
Record
49%
559-583 (1142)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$8.95
Value
$10.65
PnL
+$1.7
Record
53%
3243-2909 (6152)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
31.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.