Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Timberwolves, while the market favors Warriors (83%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Spread: Warriors (-3.5)
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Timberwolves (60%) · Timberwolves at 17¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 29
⚠️
Avoid
Timberwolves
5
Timberwolves 60%
$3.3K
-$258.39
57.6¢ → 17¢
-70% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidTimberwolves at 17%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Warriors 83%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Timberwolvesavg 59¢ | $2.8K | $2.6K | -$220.55 | 54% 16884-14152 (31036) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR | Timberwolvesavg 53.5¢ | $746.1 | $720.11 | -$25.99 | 49% 559-583 (1142) |
JU justaluckydude<$100 | Warriorsavg 42¢ | $40.74 | $48.5 | +$7.76 | 54% 10476-9103 (19579) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Timberwolvesavg 54.9¢ | $32.64 | $13.4 | -$19.24 | 53% 3243-2909 (6152) |
SE seeeeeeb<$100 | Warriorsavg 67¢ | $1.46 | $1.09 | -$0.37 | 51% 675-657 (1332) |
Invested
$2,780.28
Value
$2.6K
PnL
-$220.55
Record
54%
16884-14152 (31036)
Invested
$746.1
Value
$720.11
PnL
-$25.99
Record
49%
559-583 (1142)
Invested
$40.74
Value
$48.5
PnL
+$7.76
Record
54%
10476-9103 (19579)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$32.64
Value
$13.4
PnL
-$19.24
Record
53%
3243-2909 (6152)
Invested
$1.46
Value
$1.09
PnL
-$0.37
Record
51%
675-657 (1332)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
17.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.