Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Timberwolves, while the market favors Warriors (90%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Warriors (-1.5)

4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Timberwolves (80%) · Timberwolves at 10¢ · $9K held · ended Oct 29

Warriors90¢Timberwolves10¢Ended Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Timberwolves

Consensus Traders

Timberwolves 80%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$9.5K

Combined PnL

$-1.1K

Smart Money Entry

50.8¢ → 10.3¢

-80% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidTimberwolves at 10%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Timberwolves

4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Warriors 90%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Warriors90%

Timberwolves10%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Timberwolves4 traders

Total Value$970.87

Total Shares3,567

Combined PnL$-1.2K

Warriors1 trader

Total Value$479.99

Total Shares600

Combined PnL+$168

Timberwolves — 80%Warriors — 20%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Warriorsavg 49.8¢	$5.3K	$5.3K	-$51.61	54% 16884-14152 (31036)
└ Warriors leg	Warriorsavg 49.8¢	$3.1K	$3.3K	+$136.47
└ Timberwolves leg	Timberwolvesavg 52.5¢	$2.2K	$2.0K	-$188.08
AN Anon455ARB<$100	Timberwolvesavg 54.1¢	$2.7K	$2.7K	-$0.72	56% 2651-2105 (4756)
└ Timberwolves leg	Timberwolvesavg 54.1¢	$1.4K	$1.7K	+$309.28
└ Warriors leg	Warriorsavg 44.3¢	$1.3K	$1.0K	-$310
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Timberwolvesavg 49¢	$1.2K	$855.73	-$355.23	49% 559-583 (1142)
RU Ruler11	Warriorsavg 52¢	$311.99	$479.99	+$168	51% 284-277 (561)
JU justaluckydudeCTR	Timberwolvesavg 55.9¢	$928.4	$99.6	-$828.8	54% 10476-9103 (19579)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Timberwolvesavg 49.6¢	$48.27	$8.15	-$40.12	53% 3243-2909 (6152)
TA takeormakeCTR<$100	Timberwolvesavg 11.8¢	$16.83	$7.4	-$9.43	54% 3824-3298 (7122)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Warriors

Invested

$5,348.42

Value

$5.3K

PnL

-$51.61

Record

54%

16884-14152 (31036)

Both legs:

Warriors$3,134.3549.8¢+$136.47

Timberwolves$2,214.0852.5¢-$188.08

Anon455ARB<$100

Timberwolves

Invested

$2,733.93

Value

$2.7K

PnL

-$0.72

Record

56%

2651-2105 (4756)

Both legs:

Timberwolves$1,403.9354.1¢+$309.28

Warriors$1,33044.3¢-$310

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Timberwolves

Invested

$1,244.27

Value

$855.73

PnL

-$355.23

Record

49%

559-583 (1142)

Ruler11

Warriors

Invested

$311.99

Value

$479.99

PnL

+$168

Record

51%

284-277 (561)

justaluckydudeCTR

Timberwolves

Invested

$928.4

Value

$99.6

PnL

-$828.8

Record

54%

10476-9103 (19579)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Timberwolves

Invested

$48.27

Value

$8.15

PnL

-$40.12

Record

53%

3243-2909 (6152)

takeormakeCTR<$100

Timberwolves

Invested

$16.83

Value

$7.4

PnL

-$9.43

Record

54%

3824-3298 (7122)

Research grade

AvoidTimberwolves at 10%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Timberwolves

4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Warriors 90%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Timberwolves wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance11.8%

10.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$747.37

Max Loss

-$100.00

847.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.