Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (51%). 1 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Warriors vs. Rockets: O/U 222.5
1 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (17%) · Under at 50¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Under
6
Under 17%
$2.0K
$21.44
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 50%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 6 top traders (17%)Underdog side (market favors Over 51%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KA KasonWongCTR | Underavg 51¢ | $1.0K | $1.0K | -$10 | 23% 7-24 (31) |
LI Limousin | Overavg 49¢ | $667.61 | $688.05 | +$20.44 | 30% 369-862 (1231) |
MA MadridTime | Overavg 49¢ | $306.41 | $315.79 | +$9.38 | 31% 373-839 (1212) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Overavg 48¢ | $12 | $12.75 | +$0.75 | 48% 654-705 (1359) |
HO HomeRunHazard<$100 | Overavg 48¢ | $9.33 | $9.91 | +$0.58 | 57% 3221-2429 (5650) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Overavg 48¢ | $4.59 | $4.88 | +$0.29 | 54% 553-471 (1024) |
Invested
$1,020
Value
$1.0K
PnL
-$10
Record
23%
7-24 (31)
Invested
$667.61
Value
$688.05
PnL
+$20.44
Record
30%
369-862 (1231)
Invested
$306.41
Value
$315.79
PnL
+$9.38
Record
31%
373-839 (1212)
Invested
$12
Value
$12.75
PnL
+$0.75
Record
48%
654-705 (1359)
Invested
$9.33
Value
$9.91
PnL
+$0.58
Record
57%
3221-2429 (5650)
Invested
$4.59
Value
$4.88
PnL
+$0.29
Record
54%
553-471 (1024)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
49.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.