Warriors vs. Rockets: O/U 220.5
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 51¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Under
4
Under 50%
1 arb excluded
$1.3K
$2.84
50¢ → 50.5¢
+1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 51%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100 | Overavg 50¢ | $967.97 | $979.23 | +$11.26 | 57% 3221-2431 (5652) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 50¢ | $703.36 | $703.36 | +$0 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 47¢ | $264.61 | $275.87 | +$11.26 | |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh | Underavg 50¢ | $247.63 | $250.11 | +$2.48 | 53% 1801-1611 (3412) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Overavg 50¢ | $19.23 | $19.53 | +$0.3 | 48% 662-711 (1373) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Overavg 52¢ | $2.86 | $2.75 | -$0.11 | 48% 1332-1446 (2778) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Underavg 46¢ | $2.53 | $2.7 | +$0.17 | 54% 565-475 (1040) |
Invested
$967.97
Value
$979.23
PnL
+$11.26
Record
57%
3221-2431 (5652)
Both legs:
Invested
$247.63
Value
$250.11
PnL
+$2.48
Record
53%
1801-1611 (3412)
Invested
$19.23
Value
$19.53
PnL
+$0.3
Record
48%
662-711 (1373)
Invested
$2.86
Value
$2.75
PnL
-$0.11
Record
48%
1332-1446 (2778)
Invested
$2.53
Value
$2.7
PnL
+$0.17
Record
54%
565-475 (1040)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.