Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (59%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Warriors vs. Rockets: O/U 216.5

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (60%) · Under at 42¢ · $85 held · ends Nov 12

Over59¢Under41¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 60%

Total Value

$85.12

Combined PnL

-$2.49

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 42%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Over 59%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Over59%

Under42%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$76.17

Total Shares188

Combined PnL-$2.35

Over2 traders

Total Value$8.95

Total Shares13

Combined PnL-$0.14

Under — 60%Over — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100	Underavg 42¢	$73.5	$70.88	-$2.63	57% 3229-2433 (5662)
E9 0xe907...cff6<$100	Overavg 61¢	$4.76	$4.64	-$0.12	—
GH ghorrock<$100	Overavg 61¢	$4.33	$4.31	-$0.03	55% 683-554 (1237)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Underavg 38.6¢	$3.07	$3.22	+$0.15	31% 412-897 (1309)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Underavg 38¢	$1.95	$2.08	+$0.13	31% 412-920 (1332)

HomeRunHazardCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$73.5

Value

$70.88

PnL

-$2.63

Record

57%

3229-2433 (5662)

0xe907...cff6<$100

Over

Invested

$4.76

Value

$4.64

PnL

-$0.12

Record

—

ghorrock<$100

Over

Invested

$4.33

Value

$4.31

PnL

-$0.03

Record

55%

683-554 (1237)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$3.07

Value

$3.22

PnL

+$0.15

Record

31%

412-897 (1309)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.95

Value

$2.08

PnL

+$0.13

Record

31%

412-920 (1332)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 42%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Over 59%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance43.7%

41.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$128.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

228.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.