Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Rockets, while the market favors Warriors (55%). 5 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: Rockets (-6.5)
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Rockets (100%) · Rockets at 46¢ · $143 held · ends Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Rockets
5
Rockets 100%
$143.1
$3.13
44¢ → 45.5¢
+3% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidRockets at 46%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Warriors 55%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 65%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Rockets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 65% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100 | Rocketsavg 44¢ | $51.3 | $52.47 | +$1.17 | 57% 3101-2332 (5433) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Rocketsavg 44¢ | $40.22 | $41.13 | +$0.91 | 48% 231-247 (478) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Rocketsavg 44¢ | $35.2 | $36 | +$0.8 | 48% 1027-1110 (2137) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Rocketsavg 44¢ | $11 | $11.25 | +$0.25 | 49% 498-518 (1016) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Rocketsavg 45¢ | $2.25 | $2.25 | +$0 | 29% 315-788 (1103) |
Invested
$51.3
Value
$52.47
PnL
+$1.17
Record
57%
3101-2332 (5433)
Invested
$40.22
Value
$41.13
PnL
+$0.91
Record
48%
231-247 (478)
Invested
$35.2
Value
$36
PnL
+$0.8
Record
48%
1027-1110 (2137)
Invested
$11
Value
$11.25
PnL
+$0.25
Record
49%
498-518 (1016)
Invested
$2.25
Value
$2.25
PnL
+$0
Record
29%
315-788 (1103)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
45.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.