Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Warriors, while the market favors Rockets (62%). 7 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Warriors vs. Rockets

7 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Warriors (100%) · Warriors at 39¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 12

Warriors39¢Rockets61¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Warriors

Consensus Traders

Warriors 100%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.9K

Combined PnL

-$76.82

Smart Money Entry

37.4¢ → 38.5¢

+3% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidWarriors at 39%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Warriors

7 of 7 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Rockets 62%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Warriors39%

Rockets62%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Warriors7 traders

Total Value$2.5K

Total Shares6,482

Combined PnL-$76.82

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Fresh

12h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Warriors. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleWarriors 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpWarriors 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrWarriors 100% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Warriors 100% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
65 6512395314597884CTR	Warriorsavg 37¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	-$46.99	51% 3095-3009 (6104)
GA GaditimaCTR	Warriorsavg 38¢	$711	$730.08	-$46.44	51% 62-60 (122)
OD OddstormARB<$100	Rocketsavg 63.3¢	$376.59	$382.77	+$6.17	7% 7-88 (95)
└ Rockets leg	Rocketsavg 63.3¢	$200.16	$194.38	-$5.78
└ Warriors leg	Warriorsavg 36.1¢	$176.43	$188.39	+$11.96
nigiri99CTR	Warriorsavg 37.1¢	$203.72	$214.11	+$10.39	52% 92-86 (178)
PU purplegattoCTR	Warriorsavg 37¢	$172.71	$182.04	+$9.34	69% 2536-1149 (3685)
38 38791873984189CTR	Warriorsavg 39.3¢	$144.19	$141.17	-$3.01	48% 603-645 (1248)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Warriorsavg 40.2¢	$27.79	$27.33	-$0.76	47% 329-371 (700)
RL RLWGCTR<$100	Warriorsavg 34¢	$5.1	$5.85	+$0.68	69% 1577-725 (2302)

6512395314597884CTR

Warriors

Invested

$1,170.22

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$46.99

Record

51%

3095-3009 (6104)

GaditimaCTR

Warriors

Invested

$711

Value

$730.08

PnL

-$46.44

Record

51%

62-60 (122)

OddstormARB<$100

Rockets

Invested

$376.59

Value

$382.77

PnL

+$6.17

Record

7-88 (95)

Both legs:

Rockets$200.1663.3¢-$5.78

Warriors$176.4336.1¢+$11.96

nigiri99CTR

Warriors

Invested

$203.72

Value

$214.11

PnL

+$10.39

Record

52%

92-86 (178)

purplegattoCTR

Warriors

Invested

$172.71

Value

$182.04

PnL

+$9.34

Record

69%

2536-1149 (3685)

38791873984189CTR

Warriors

Invested

$144.19

Value

$141.17

PnL

-$3.01

Record

48%

603-645 (1248)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Warriors

Invested

$27.79

Value

$27.33

PnL

-$0.76

Record

47%

329-371 (700)

RLWGCTR<$100

Warriors

Invested

$5.1

Value

$5.85

PnL

+$0.68

Record

69%

1577-725 (2302)

Research grade

AvoidWarriors at 39%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Warriors

7 of 7 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Rockets 62%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Fresh

12h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Warriors. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleWarriors 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpWarriors 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrWarriors 100% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Warriors 100% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Warriors wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance40.7%

38.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$145.73

Max Loss

-$100.00

245.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.