Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Nuggets, while the market favors Warriors (71%). 3 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Nuggets (-5.5)

3 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Nuggets (30%) · Nuggets at 30¢ · $18K held · ended Oct 27

Nuggets30¢Warriors70¢Ended Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Nuggets

Consensus Traders

Nuggets 30%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$18.2K

Combined PnL

-$410.05

Smart Money Entry

51.2¢ → 29.5¢

-42% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidNuggets at 30%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Nuggets

3 of 10 top traders (30%)Underdog side (market favors Warriors 71%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Nuggets30%

Warriors71%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Nuggets3 traders

Total Value$4.3K

Total Shares8,136

Combined PnL-$296.18

Warriors7 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares3,328

Combined PnL-$113.87

Nuggets — 30%Warriors — 70%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Nuggets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (3 on Nuggets) and the top 1000 (4 on Warriors) disagree here.

whaleNuggets 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrWarriors 80% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedNuggets 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Warriors 100% · 4

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Nuggetsavg 55.3¢	$9.4K	$9.2K	-$112.11	54% 16560-13892 (30452)
└ Nuggets leg	Nuggetsavg 55.3¢	$6.0K	$6.4K	+$394.39
└ Warriors leg	Warriorsavg 48.2¢	$3.4K	$2.9K	-$506.5
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Nuggetsavg 47.4¢	$2.5K	$2.8K	+$403.66	48% 414-442 (856)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Warriorsavg 40.4¢	$1.5K	$1.6K	+$152.63	51% 12449-11898 (24347)
└ Warriors leg	Warriorsavg 40.4¢	$769.02	$847.91	+$78.71
└ Nuggets leg	Nuggetsavg 50.3¢	$712.85	$786.86	+$73.92
VeryLucky888CTR	Nuggetsavg 55¢	$2.2K	$1.5K	-$700	58% 39913-28822 (68735)
RN1ARB<$100	Nuggetsavg 47.3¢	$815.63	$821.69	+$6.06	54% 54957-46919 (101876)
└ Warriors leg	Warriorsavg 46.5¢	$324.23	$442.81	+$118.58
└ Nuggets leg	Nuggetsavg 47.3¢	$491.4	$378.88	-$112.52
AN Anon455ARB<$100	Warriorsavg 47¢	$587.66	$618.38	+$36.78	56% 2440-1906 (4346)
└ Nuggets leg	Nuggetsavg 45¢	$241	$315.97	+$58.91
└ Warriors leg	Warriorsavg 47¢	$346.66	$302.41	-$22.13
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Warriorsavg 46¢	$460	$410	-$25	51% 1154-1090 (2244)
FO Forecastication2	Warriorsavg 45¢	$405.45	$369.41	-$36.04	50% 6677-6671 (13348)
TA takeormake	Warriorsavg 52.2¢	$287.07	$233.97	-$53.1	54% 3614-3134 (6748)
BB bbb17367162806	Warriorsavg 44¢	$184.66	$172.07	+$2.1	49% 100-105 (205)
SE seeeeeeb	Warriorsavg 64¢	$128	$126	-$2	49% 589-601 (1190)
PA pauleta23	Warriorsavg 64¢	$128	$126	-$2	67% 22976-11372 (34348)
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100	Nuggetsavg 58.5¢	$73.36	$73.47	+$0.92	57% 27306-20190 (47496)
└ Nuggets leg	Nuggetsavg 58.5¢	$50.9	$51.33	+$0.43
└ Warriors leg	Warriorsavg 41.6¢	$22.46	$22.14	+$0.49
HRTrading<$100	Warriorsavg 40.1¢	$36.53	$37.34	+$2.18	54% 2345-1973 (4318)
SL slimjoeCTR<$100	Nuggetsavg 53¢	$1.43	$1.59	+$0.16	51% 6418-6090 (12508)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Nuggets

Invested

$9,353.03

Value

$9.2K

PnL

-$112.11

Record

54%

16560-13892 (30452)

Both legs:

Nuggets$5,974.3855.3¢+$394.39

Warriors$3,378.6548.2¢-$506.5

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Nuggets

Invested

$2,450.54

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$403.66

Record

48%

414-442 (856)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Warriors

Invested

$1,482.13

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$152.63

Record

51%

12449-11898 (24347)

Both legs:

Warriors$769.0240.4¢+$78.71

Nuggets$712.8550.3¢+$73.92

VeryLucky888CTR

Nuggets

Invested

$2,200

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$700

Record

58%

39913-28822 (68735)

RN1ARB<$100

Nuggets

Invested

$815.63

Value

$821.69

PnL

+$6.06

Record

54%

54957-46919 (101876)

Both legs:

Warriors$324.2346.5¢+$118.58

Nuggets$491.447.3¢-$112.52

Anon455ARB<$100

Warriors

Invested

$587.66

Value

$618.38

PnL

+$36.78

Record

56%

2440-1906 (4346)

Both legs:

Nuggets$24145¢+$58.91

Warriors$346.6647¢-$22.13

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Warriors

Invested

$460

Value

$410

PnL

-$25

Record

51%

1154-1090 (2244)

Forecastication2

Warriors

Invested

$405.45

Value

$369.41

PnL

-$36.04

Record

50%

6677-6671 (13348)

takeormake

Warriors

Invested

$287.07

Value

$233.97

PnL

-$53.1

Record

54%

3614-3134 (6748)

bbb17367162806

Warriors

Invested

$184.66

Value

$172.07

PnL

+$2.1

Record

49%

100-105 (205)

seeeeeeb

Warriors

Invested

$128

Value

$126

PnL

-$2

Record

49%

589-601 (1190)

pauleta23

Warriors

Invested

$128

Value

$126

PnL

-$2

Record

67%

22976-11372 (34348)

LeLynxMalynxARB<$100

Nuggets

Invested

$73.36

Value

$73.47

PnL

+$0.92

Record

57%

27306-20190 (47496)

Both legs:

Nuggets$50.958.5¢+$0.43

Warriors$22.4641.6¢+$0.49

HRTrading<$100

Warriors

Invested

$36.53

Value

$37.34

PnL

+$2.18

Record

54%

2345-1973 (4318)

slimjoeCTR<$100

Nuggets

Invested

$1.43

Value

$1.59

PnL

+$0.16

Record

51%

6418-6090 (12508)

Research grade

AvoidNuggets at 30%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Nuggets

3 of 10 top traders (30%)Underdog side (market favors Warriors 71%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Nuggets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (3 on Nuggets) and the top 1000 (4 on Warriors) disagree here.

whaleNuggets 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrWarriors 80% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedNuggets 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Warriors 100% · 4

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Nuggets wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance31.6%

29.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$216.86

Max Loss

-$100.00

316.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.