Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Nuggets, while the market favors Warriors (65%). 2 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Nuggets (-4.5)

2 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Nuggets (25%) · Nuggets at 36¢ · $12K held · ended Oct 27

Nuggets36¢Warriors64¢Ended Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Nuggets

Consensus Traders

Nuggets 25%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$12.1K

Combined PnL

$110.57

Smart Money Entry

52.6¢ → 35.5¢

-33% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidNuggets at 36%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Nuggets

2 of 8 top traders (25%)Underdog side (market favors Warriors 65%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Nuggets36%

Warriors65%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Nuggets2 traders

Total Value$3.0K

Total Shares4,853

Combined PnL+$273.66

Warriors6 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares3,301

Combined PnL-$163.09

Nuggets — 25%Warriors — 75%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

15h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

17% of non-arb traders are on Nuggets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleWarriors 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrWarriors 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedWarriors 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Warriors 75% · 4

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Nuggetsavg 48.9¢	$5.5K	$5.8K	+$348.66	54% 16560-13892 (30452)
└ Nuggets leg	Nuggetsavg 48.9¢	$3.1K	$3.7K	+$633.59
└ Warriors leg	Warriorsavg 46.5¢	$2.4K	$2.1K	-$284.93
HONGKONGPEACHCTR	Nuggetsavg 53¢	$2.0K	$2.3K	+$231.01	50% 318-318 (636)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Warriorsavg 48.3¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$2.48	48% 414-442 (856)
└ Warriors leg	Warriorsavg 48.3¢	$680.63	$577.77	-$102.87
└ Nuggets leg	Nuggetsavg 46.6¢	$376.82	$477.21	+$100.39
TA takeormake	Warriorsavg 53.5¢	$1.1K	$886.29	-$259.38	54% 3614-3134 (6748)
AN Anon455ARB<$100	Warriorsavg 50¢	$844.87	$806.74	-$41.67	56% 2440-1906 (4346)
└ Warriors leg	Warriorsavg 50¢	$507.38	$416.3	-$101.23
└ Nuggets leg	Nuggetsavg 51¢	$337.5	$390.44	+$59.56
RN1CTR	Nuggetsavg 51.1¢	$671.61	$714.26	+$42.65	54% 54957-46919 (101876)
VeryLucky888	Warriorsavg 40¢	$200	$281.27	+$85.82	58% 39913-28822 (68735)
FL Flaznorp	Warriorsavg 38.7¢	$243.58	$255.04	+$11.46	51% 12449-11898 (24347)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Warriorsavg 39¢	$16.92	$16.2	+$0.25	57% 27306-20190 (47496)
0xheavy888<$100	Warriorsavg 41¢	$8.2	$8.1	-$0.1	56% 6781-5428 (12209)
HRTrading<$100	Warriorsavg 47¢	$8.93	$7.79	-$1.14	54% 2345-1973 (4318)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Nuggets

Invested

$5,465.33

Value

$5.8K

PnL

+$348.66

Record

54%

16560-13892 (30452)

Both legs:

Nuggets$3,059.0648.9¢+$633.59

Warriors$2,406.2646.5¢-$284.93

HONGKONGPEACHCTR

Nuggets

Invested

$2,040.62

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$231.01

Record

50%

318-318 (636)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Warriors

Invested

$1,057.46

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$2.48

Record

48%

414-442 (856)

Both legs:

Warriors$680.6348.3¢-$102.87

Nuggets$376.8246.6¢+$100.39

takeormake

Warriors

Invested

$1,145.67

Value

$886.29

PnL

-$259.38

Record

54%

3614-3134 (6748)

Anon455ARB<$100

Warriors

Invested

$844.87

Value

$806.74

PnL

-$41.67

Record

56%

2440-1906 (4346)

Both legs:

Warriors$507.3850¢-$101.23

Nuggets$337.551¢+$59.56

RN1CTR

Nuggets

Invested

$671.61

Value

$714.26

PnL

+$42.65

Record

54%

54957-46919 (101876)

VeryLucky888

Warriors

Invested

$200

Value

$281.27

PnL

+$85.82

Record

58%

39913-28822 (68735)

Flaznorp

Warriors

Invested

$243.58

Value

$255.04

PnL

+$11.46

Record

51%

12449-11898 (24347)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Warriors

Invested

$16.92

Value

$16.2

PnL

+$0.25

Record

57%

27306-20190 (47496)

0xheavy888<$100

Warriors

Invested

$8.2

Value

$8.1

PnL

-$0.1

Record

56%

6781-5428 (12209)

HRTrading<$100

Warriors

Invested

$8.93

Value

$7.79

PnL

-$1.14

Record

54%

2345-1973 (4318)

Research grade

AvoidNuggets at 36%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Nuggets

2 of 8 top traders (25%)Underdog side (market favors Warriors 65%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

15h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

17% of non-arb traders are on Nuggets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleWarriors 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrWarriors 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedWarriors 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Warriors 75% · 4

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Nuggets wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance37.7%

35.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$165.54

Max Loss

-$100.00

265.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.