Spread: Pistons (-9.5)

2 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Pistons (22%) · Pistons at 55¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 13

Pistons55¢Wizards45¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Pistons

Consensus Traders

Pistons 22%

Total Value

$3.5K

Combined PnL

-$2.71

Smart Money Entry

53¢ → 54.5¢

+3% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidPistons at 55%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Pistons

2 of 9 top traders (22%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Pistons55%

Wizards46%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Pistons2 traders

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares3,803

Combined PnL-$19.02

Wizards7 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares3,125

Combined PnL+$16.31

Pistons — 22%Wizards — 78%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AP AppleTiiime	Pistonsavg 53¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	-$16.8	53% 93-84 (177)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Wizardsavg 47¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$13.93	57% 3457-2627 (6084)
RA Raisuu	Pistonsavg 53¢	$234.51	$232.3	-$2.21	56% 25-20 (45)
NM NM-PCTR<$100	Wizardsavg 45¢	$78.75	$79.63	+$0.88	59% 3534-2417 (5951)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Wizardsavg 45¢	$39.96	$40.41	+$0.44	46% 440-515 (955)
GC GC-PCTR<$100	Wizardsavg 45¢	$19.89	$20.11	+$0.22	26% 152-428 (580)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Wizardsavg 45¢	$11.25	$11.38	+$0.13	49% 1072-1133 (2205)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Wizardsavg 46¢	$11.01	$11.37	+$0.36	33% 553-1132 (1685)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Wizardsavg 46¢	$10.92	$11.28	+$0.36	48% 2191-2368 (4559)

AppleTiiime

Pistons

Invested

$1,781.16

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$16.8

Record

53%

93-84 (177)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Wizards

Invested

$1,311.37

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$13.93

Record

57%

3457-2627 (6084)

Raisuu

Pistons

Invested

$234.51

Value

$232.3

PnL

-$2.21

Record

56%

25-20 (45)

NM-PCTR<$100

Wizards

Invested

$78.75

Value

$79.63

PnL

+$0.88

Record

59%

3534-2417 (5951)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Wizards

Invested

$39.96

Value

$40.41

PnL

+$0.44

Record

46%

440-515 (955)

GC-PCTR<$100

Wizards

Invested

$19.89

Value

$20.11

PnL

+$0.22

Record

26%

152-428 (580)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Wizards

Invested

$11.25

Value

$11.38

PnL

+$0.13

Record

49%

1072-1133 (2205)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Wizards

Invested

$11.01

Value

$11.37

PnL

+$0.36

Record

33%

553-1132 (1685)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Wizards

Invested

$10.92

Value

$11.28

PnL

+$0.36

Record

48%

2191-2368 (4559)

Research grade

AvoidPistons at 55%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Pistons

2 of 9 top traders (22%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Pistons wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance56.7%

54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$76.26

Max Loss

-$100.00

176.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.