Pistons vs. Knicks: O/U 226.5
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (40%) · Under at 92¢ · $448 held · ended Oct 28
⚠️
Avoid
Under
5
Under 40%
$448.15
$90.99
52.6¢ → 91.5¢
+74% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 92%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh | Underavg 51¢ | $408.16 | $287.76 | +$79.59 | 48% 500-532 (1032) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Underavg 62.4¢ | $44.71 | $64.29 | +$19.59 | 53% 2815-2479 (5294) |
TO torta.techCTR<$100 | Overavg 41.6¢ | $66.6 | $60.8 | -$5.8 | 63% 7960-4740 (12700) |
AN Anon455CTR<$100 | Overavg 38¢ | $64.19 | $20.86 | -$3.53 | 56% 2595-2041 (4636) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Overavg 35¢ | $13.3 | $14.44 | +$1.14 | 54% 55509-47585 (103094) |
Invested
$408.16
Value
$287.76
PnL
+$79.59
Record
48%
500-532 (1032)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$44.71
Value
$64.29
PnL
+$19.59
Record
53%
2815-2479 (5294)
Invested
$66.6
Value
$60.8
PnL
-$5.8
Record
63%
7960-4740 (12700)
Invested
$64.19
Value
$20.86
PnL
-$3.53
Record
56%
2595-2041 (4636)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$13.3
Value
$14.44
PnL
+$1.14
Record
54%
55509-47585 (103094)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
91.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.