Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (90%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Pistons vs. Knicks: O/U 224.5
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Over (75%) · Over at 10¢ · $373 held · ended Oct 28
⚠️
Avoid
Over
4
Over 75%
1 arb excluded
$373.35
-$0.82
43.2¢ → 10¢
-77% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 10%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Under 90%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
75% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100 | Underavg 50.8¢ | $353.78 | $195.34 | +$14.17 | 48% 500-532 (1032) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 50.8¢ | $122.25 | $155.12 | +$32.86 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 52¢ | $58.91 | $40.21 | -$18.69 | |
TO torta.techCTR<$100 | Overavg 45¢ | $95.4 | $95.4 | +$0 | 63% 7960-4740 (12700) |
AN Anon455CTR<$100 | Overavg 41¢ | $60.43 | $53.06 | -$7.37 | 56% 2595-2041 (4636) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Underavg 61.7¢ | $19.93 | $25.92 | +$5.99 | 53% 2815-2479 (5294) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Overavg 38¢ | $3.06 | $3.63 | +$0.56 | 58% 27963-20593 (48556) |
Invested
$353.78
Value
$195.34
PnL
+$14.17
Record
48%
500-532 (1032)
Both legs:
Invested
$95.4
Value
$95.4
PnL
+$0
Record
63%
7960-4740 (12700)
Invested
$60.43
Value
$53.06
PnL
-$7.37
Record
56%
2595-2041 (4636)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$19.93
Value
$25.92
PnL
+$5.99
Record
53%
2815-2479 (5294)
Invested
$3.06
Value
$3.63
PnL
+$0.56
Record
58%
27963-20593 (48556)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
10.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.