Pistons vs. Knicks: O/U 222.5

2 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Under (20%) · Under at 70¢ · $13K held · ended Oct 28

Over30¢Under70¢Ended Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 20%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$12.9K

Combined PnL

$-1.9K

Smart Money Entry

52.3¢ → 70¢

+34% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 70%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 10 top traders (20%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over30%

Under70%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under2 traders

Total Value$7.5K

Total Shares17,847

Combined PnL$-2.0K

Over8 traders

Total Value$3.5K

Total Shares6,586

Combined PnL+$132.63

Under — 20%Over — 80%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Underavg 52.3¢	$9.5K	$7.5K	$-2.0K	54% 16761-14066 (30827)
GA gagarin59CTR	Overavg 48.9¢	$2.6K	$2.8K	+$215.54	52% 639-583 (1222)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Overavg 47¢	$1.0K	$1.1K	+$68.96	48% 500-532 (1032)
└ Under leg	Underavg 46.7¢	$508.15	$571.54	+$63.39
└ Over leg	Overavg 47¢	$523.79	$529.36	+$5.57
JU justaluckydudeARB<$100	Underavg 50.2¢	$772.13	$783.28	+$11.15	54% 10411-9036 (19447)
└ Under leg	Underavg 50.2¢	$553.46	$578.55	+$25.09
└ Over leg	Overavg 50.7¢	$218.67	$204.73	-$13.95
AN Anon455CTR	Overavg 44¢	$502.81	$528.95	-$96	56% 2590-2035 (4625)
TA takeormakeCTR	Overavg 54¢	$101.52	$110.92	+$9.4	54% 3774-3233 (7007)
TO torta.techCTR<$100	Overavg 42¢	$43.68	$42.12	-$1.56	63% 7957-4739 (12696)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Overavg 33.3¢	$15.21	$18.69	+$3.49	54% 2744-2368 (5112)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Underavg 56¢	$13.46	$12.02	-$1.44	58% 27917-20560 (48477)
RN1CTR<$100	Overavg 43¢	$5.79	$6.74	+$0.94	54% 55451-47514 (102965)
SU SunlineTickerCTR<$100	Overavg 40¢	$4	$5	+$1	62% 4008-2448 (6456)
0X 0xe3eeb127d5763a6e4ad597f773f9d9c94d5176CTR<$100	Overavg 44¢	$2.28	$2.1	-$0.18	53% 6103-5330 (11433)

HomeRunHazard

Under

Invested

$9,490.62

Value

$7.5K

PnL

$-2.0K

Record

54%

16761-14066 (30827)

gagarin59CTR

Over

Invested

$2,550.87

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$215.54

Record

52%

639-583 (1222)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Over

Invested

$1,031.94

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$68.96

Record

48%

500-532 (1032)

Both legs:

Under$508.1546.7¢+$63.39

Over$523.7947¢+$5.57

justaluckydudeARB<$100

Under

Invested

$772.13

Value

$783.28

PnL

+$11.15

Record

54%

10411-9036 (19447)

Both legs:

Under$553.4650.2¢+$25.09

Over$218.6750.7¢-$13.95

Anon455CTR

Over

Invested

$502.81

Value

$528.95

PnL

-$96

Record

56%

2590-2035 (4625)

takeormakeCTR

Over

Invested

$101.52

Value

$110.92

PnL

+$9.4

Record

54%

3774-3233 (7007)

torta.techCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$43.68

Value

$42.12

PnL

-$1.56

Record

63%

7957-4739 (12696)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$15.21

Value

$18.69

PnL

+$3.49

Record

54%

2744-2368 (5112)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Under

Invested

$13.46

Value

$12.02

PnL

-$1.44

Record

58%

27917-20560 (48477)

RN1CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$5.79

Value

$6.74

PnL

+$0.94

Record

54%

55451-47514 (102965)

SunlineTickerCTR<$100

Over

Invested

Value

PnL

+$1

Record

62%

4008-2448 (6456)

0xe3eeb127d5763a6e4ad597f773f9d9c94d5176CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.28

Value

$2.1

PnL

-$0.18

Record

53%

6103-5330 (11433)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 70%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 10 top traders (20%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance72.0%

70.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$38.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

138.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.