Pistons vs. Knicks: O/U 220.5

6 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 51¢ · $30K held · ended Oct 28

Over50¢Under50¢Ended Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$29.8K

Combined PnL

-$91.13

Smart Money Entry

51¢ → 50.5¢

-1% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 51%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 12 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over50%

Under51%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under6 traders

Total Value$12.8K

Total Shares25,119

Combined PnL-$133.27

Over6 traders

Total Value$4.5K

Total Shares9,045

Combined PnL+$42.13

Under — 50%Over — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (3 on Under) and the top 1000 (10 on Over) disagree here.

whaleUnder 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpOver 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrOver 67% · 9

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Over 70% · 10

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Underavg 51¢	$12.6K	$12.5K	-$25.81	54% 16761-14066 (30827)
└ Under leg	Underavg 51¢	$9.0K	$8.9K	-$84.23
└ Over leg	Overavg 48.7¢	$3.6K	$3.6K	+$58.41
FeedTheBigBird	Underavg 51¢	$8.0K	$7.9K	-$78.43	48% 41-45 (86)
IC ic4cream	Underavg 51¢	$2.9K	$2.9K	-$28.35	59% 2599-1830 (4429)
WO woshikd99CTR	Overavg 49¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$14.92	55% 24-20 (44)
BA BayupatiCTR	Overavg 49.2¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$8.35	50% 186-183 (369)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Underavg 51¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$12	51% 1228-1166 (2394)
FO Forecastication2CTR	Overavg 49¢	$742.35	$749.93	+$7.58	50% 6756-6757 (13513)
RN1	Underavg 51.2¢	$634.99	$628.74	-$6.25	54% 55451-47514 (102965)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR	Overavg 49¢	$490	$495	+$5	53% 5483-4829 (10312)
SU SunlineTickerCTR	Overavg 49¢	$354.76	$358.38	+$3.62	62% 4008-2448 (6456)
LE leungchihang	Underavg 52¢	$287.24	$278.95	-$8.29	51% 47-45 (92)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Overavg 46.2¢	$50.86	$53.52	+$2.66	58% 27917-20560 (48477)
0xheavy888<$100	Underavg 50¢	$5	$5.05	+$0.05	56% 6856-5494 (12350)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Under

Invested

$12,556.89

Value

$12.5K

PnL

-$25.81

Record

54%

16761-14066 (30827)

Both legs:

Under$8,974.951¢-$84.23

Over$3,581.9948.7¢+$58.41

FeedTheBigBird

Under

Invested

$8,000

Value

$7.9K

PnL

-$78.43

Record

48%

41-45 (86)

ic4cream

Under

Invested

$2,891.7

Value

$2.9K

PnL

-$28.35

Record

59%

2599-1830 (4429)

woshikd99CTR

Over

Invested

$1,462.65

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$14.92

Record

55%

24-20 (44)

BayupatiCTR

Over

Invested

$1,350.12

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$8.35

Record

50%

186-183 (369)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Under

Invested

$1,123

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$12

Record

51%

1228-1166 (2394)

Forecastication2CTR

Over

Invested

$742.35

Value

$749.93

PnL

+$7.58

Record

50%

6756-6757 (13513)

RN1

Under

Invested

$634.99

Value

$628.74

PnL

-$6.25

Record

54%

55451-47514 (102965)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR

Over

Invested

$490

Value

$495

PnL

+$5

Record

53%

5483-4829 (10312)

SunlineTickerCTR

Over

Invested

$354.76

Value

$358.38

PnL

+$3.62

Record

62%

4008-2448 (6456)

leungchihang

Under

Invested

$287.24

Value

$278.95

PnL

-$8.29

Record

51%

47-45 (92)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$50.86

Value

$53.52

PnL

+$2.66

Record

58%

27917-20560 (48477)

0xheavy888<$100

Under

Invested

Value

$5.05

PnL

+$0.05

Record

56%

6856-5494 (12350)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 51%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 12 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (3 on Under) and the top 1000 (10 on Over) disagree here.

whaleUnder 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpOver 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrOver 67% · 9

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Over 70% · 10

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance52.7%

50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$89.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

189.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.