Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (52%). 2 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Pistons vs. Knicks: O/U 214.5

2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (40%) · Under at 48¢ · $10K held · ended Oct 28

Over52¢Under48¢Ended Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 40%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$9.6K

Combined PnL

$21.64

Smart Money Entry

47.1¢ → 48¢

+2% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 48%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 5 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Over 52%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over52%

Under48%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under2 traders

Total Value$570.24

Total Shares1,040

Combined PnL+$25.72

Over3 traders

Total Value$473.64

Total Shares926

Combined PnL-$4.08

Under — 40%Over — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Overavg 50.8¢	$4.8K	$4.9K	+$72	54% 16761-14066 (30827)
└ Over leg	Overavg 50.8¢	$2.8K	$2.8K	-$45.4
└ Under leg	Underavg 47.2¢	$2.0K	$2.1K	+$117.4
GA gagarin59ARB<$100	Underavg 49.1¢	$3.6K	$3.6K	+$28.2	52% 639-583 (1222)
└ Under leg	Underavg 49.1¢	$2.5K	$2.6K	+$45.13
└ Over leg	Overavg 50.9¢	$1.0K	$985.73	-$16.93
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Underavg 47.5¢	$531.94	$558.51	+$26.57	48% 500-532 (1032)
TA takeormake	Overavg 51.4¢	$345.88	$336.5	-$9.38	54% 3774-3233 (7007)
MD MD14<$100	Overavg 48¢	$92.31	$96.15	+$3.85	26% 42-121 (163)
JU justaluckydudeARB<$100	Underavg 38¢	$75.62	$73.91	-$1.71	54% 10411-9036 (19447)
└ Under leg	Underavg 38¢	$57.76	$47.88	-$9.88
└ Over leg	Overavg 47¢	$17.86	$26.03	+$8.17
FO Forecastication2<$100	Overavg 63¢	$39.54	$40.99	+$1.45	50% 6756-6757 (13513)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Underavg 37¢	$12.58	$11.73	-$0.85	58% 27917-20560 (48477)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Over

Invested

$4,783.65

Value

$4.9K

PnL

+$72

Record

54%

16761-14066 (30827)

Both legs:

Over$2,80450.8¢-$45.4

Under$1,979.6547.2¢+$117.4

gagarin59ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$3,551.46

Value

$3.6K

PnL

+$28.2

Record

52%

639-583 (1222)

Both legs:

Under$2,548.849.1¢+$45.13

Over$1,002.6650.9¢-$16.93

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Under

Invested

$531.94

Value

$558.51

PnL

+$26.57

Record

48%

500-532 (1032)

takeormake

Over

Invested

$345.88

Value

$336.5

PnL

-$9.38

Record

54%

3774-3233 (7007)

MD14<$100

Over

Invested

$92.31

Value

$96.15

PnL

+$3.85

Record

26%

42-121 (163)

justaluckydudeARB<$100

Under

Invested

$75.62

Value

$73.91

PnL

-$1.71

Record

54%

10411-9036 (19447)

Both legs:

Under$57.7638¢-$9.88

Over$17.8647¢+$8.17

Forecastication2<$100

Over

Invested

$39.54

Value

$40.99

PnL

+$1.45

Record

50%

6756-6757 (13513)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$12.58

Value

$11.73

PnL

-$0.85

Record

58%

27917-20560 (48477)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 48%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 5 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Over 52%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance50.2%

48.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$99.01

Max Loss

-$100.00

199.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.