Pistons vs. Knicks: O/U 212.5

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 57¢ · $150 held · ended Oct 28

Over57¢Under43¢Ended Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 50%

Total Value

$149.95

Combined PnL

-$8.36

Smart Money Entry

60.4¢ → 57.5¢

-5% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 57%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over57%

Under43%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over3 traders

Total Value$94.74

Total Shares177

Combined PnL-$12.19

Under3 traders

Total Value$55.21

Total Shares122

Combined PnL+$3.83

Over — 50%Under — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TA takeormake<$100	Overavg 61.6¢	$96.08	$84.24	-$11.84	54% 3774-3233 (7007)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100	Underavg 42.5¢	$39.53	$37.78	-$1.75	54% 16761-14066 (30827)
RN1CTR<$100	Underavg 34¢	$10.3	$15.15	+$4.85	54% 55451-47514 (102965)
JU justaluckydude<$100	Overavg 51¢	$9.69	$9.5	-$0.19	54% 10411-9036 (19447)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Underavg 34¢	$1.55	$2.27	+$0.73	58% 27917-20560 (48477)
HRTrading<$100	Overavg 58¢	$1.16	$1	-$0.16	54% 2744-2368 (5112)

takeormake<$100

Over

Invested

$96.08

Value

$84.24

PnL

-$11.84

Record

54%

3774-3233 (7007)

HomeRunHazardCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$39.53

Value

$37.78

PnL

-$1.75

Record

54%

16761-14066 (30827)

RN1CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$10.3

Value

$15.15

PnL

+$4.85

Record

54%

55451-47514 (102965)

justaluckydude<$100

Over

Invested

$9.69

Value

$9.5

PnL

-$0.19

Record

54%

10411-9036 (19447)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.55

Value

$2.27

PnL

+$0.73

Record

58%

27917-20560 (48477)

HRTrading<$100

Over

Invested

$1.16

Value

PnL

-$0.16

Record

54%

2744-2368 (5112)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 57%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance59.7%

57.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$67.47

Max Loss

-$100.00

167.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.