Pistons vs. Knicks: O/U 210.5
3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Over (43%) · Over at 50¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 28
⚠️
Avoid
Over
7
Over 43%
$2.5K
-$303.88
58.6¢ → 50¢
-15% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 50%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 7 top traders (43%)3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AN Anon455 | Overavg 60.3¢ | $909.82 | $1.0K | +$105.73 | 56% 2595-2041 (4636) |
 Nooserac | Underavg 33.1¢ | $1.1K | $922.86 | -$207.42 | 52% 5696-5265 (10961) |
TA takeormake | Overavg 56.2¢ | $516.93 | $372.8 | -$144.13 | 54% 3774-3233 (7007) |
HO HomeRunHazard | Underavg 36¢ | $123.71 | $92.77 | -$30.94 | 54% 16767-14068 (30835) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Underavg 55.2¢ | $39.68 | $35.66 | -$4.02 | 53% 2815-2479 (5294) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100 | Underavg 48¢ | $53.49 | $30.09 | -$23.4 | 48% 500-532 (1032) |
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100 | Overavg 67¢ | $3.35 | $3.65 | +$0.3 | 59% 29970-20691 (50661) |
Invested
$909.82
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$105.73
Record
56%
2595-2041 (4636)
NooseracInvested
$1,130.28
Value
$922.86
PnL
-$207.42
Record
52%
5696-5265 (10961)
Invested
$516.93
Value
$372.8
PnL
-$144.13
Record
54%
3774-3233 (7007)
Invested
$123.71
Value
$92.77
PnL
-$30.94
Record
54%
16767-14068 (30835)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$39.68
Value
$35.66
PnL
-$4.02
Record
53%
2815-2479 (5294)
Invested
$53.49
Value
$30.09
PnL
-$23.4
Record
48%
500-532 (1032)
Invested
$3.35
Value
$3.65
PnL
+$0.3
Record
59%
29970-20691 (50661)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.