Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (58%). 7 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Pistons vs. Knicks: O/U 208.5

7 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Under (64%) · Under at 42¢ · $34K held · ended Oct 28

Over58¢Under42¢Ended Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 64%

Total Value

$34.3K

Combined PnL

$633.3

Smart Money Entry

50¢ → 42¢

-16% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 42%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 11 top traders (64%)Underdog side (market favors Over 58%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over58%

Under42%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over4 traders

Total Value$24.3K

Total Shares32,009

Combined PnL+$8.3K

Under7 traders

Total Value$10.0K

Total Shares32,423

Combined PnL$-7.7K

Over — 36%Under — 64%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
yabanci	Overavg 49¢	$10.8K	$16.9K	+$6.2K	57% 43-32 (75)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Underavg 50.8¢	$15.0K	$8.6K	$-6.4K	48% 500-532 (1032)
PE penguin1125	Overavg 49.5¢	$4.1K	$6.3K	+$2.3K	47% 105-117 (222)
TA takeormake	Overavg 60¢	$1.1K	$1.0K	-$74.14	54% 3774-3233 (7007)
GA gagarin59CTR	Underavg 52¢	$2.0K	$901.59	$-1.1K	52% 639-583 (1222)
AN Anon455CTR	Underavg 21¢	$288.29	$314.77	+$26.48	56% 2595-2041 (4636)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR	Underavg 52¢	$260	$115	-$145	59% 29970-20691 (50661)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Underavg 49.3¢	$52.82	$25.58	-$27.25	53% 2815-2479 (5294)
FO Forecastication2<$100	Overavg 73¢	$14.8	$15.16	+$0.36	50% 6761-6761 (13522)
NA NatoAlfistaCTR<$100	Underavg 51¢	$20.4	$9.2	-$11.2	50% 3682-3663 (7345)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100	Underavg 40¢	$16	$9.2	-$6.8	54% 16767-14068 (30835)

yabanci

Over

Invested

$10,765.79

Value

$16.9K

PnL

+$6.2K

Record

57%

43-32 (75)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Under

Invested

$15,047.33

Value

$8.6K

PnL

$-6.4K

Record

48%

500-532 (1032)

penguin1125

Over

Invested

$4,051

Value

$6.3K

PnL

+$2.3K

Record

47%

105-117 (222)

takeormake

Over

Invested

$1,100.46

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$74.14

Record

54%

3774-3233 (7007)

gagarin59CTR

Under

Invested

$2,038.38

Value

$901.59

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

52%

639-583 (1222)

Anon455CTR

Under

Invested

$288.29

Value

$314.77

PnL

+$26.48

Record

56%

2595-2041 (4636)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR

Under

Invested

$260

Value

$115

PnL

-$145

Record

59%

29970-20691 (50661)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$52.82

Value

$25.58

PnL

-$27.25

Record

53%

2815-2479 (5294)

Forecastication2<$100

Over

Invested

$14.8

Value

$15.16

PnL

+$0.36

Record

50%

6761-6761 (13522)

NatoAlfistaCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$20.4

Value

$9.2

PnL

-$11.2

Record

50%

3682-3663 (7345)

HomeRunHazardCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$16

Value

$9.2

PnL

-$6.8

Record

54%

16767-14068 (30835)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 42%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 11 top traders (64%)Underdog side (market favors Over 58%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance44.2%

42.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$126.11

Max Loss

-$100.00

226.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.