Spread: Knicks (-7.5)

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Pistons (50%) · Pistons at 74¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 28

Knicks27¢Pistons73¢Ended Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Pistons

Consensus Traders

Pistons 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.2K

Combined PnL

-$80.14

Smart Money Entry

61.2¢ → 73.5¢

+20% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidPistons at 74%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Pistons

2 of 4 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Knicks27%

Pistons74%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Knicks2 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares1,672

Combined PnL+$141.03

Pistons2 traders

Total Value$990.5

Total Shares1,981

Combined PnL-$221.17

Knicks — 50%Pistons — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FO Forecastication2CTR	Knicksavg 39¢	$847.85	$982.5	+$134.65	50% 6756-6757 (13513)
TA takeormake	Pistonsavg 61¢	$979.05	$802.5	-$176.55	54% 3774-3233 (7007)
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Pistonsavg 57.8¢	$218.83	$215.91	-$2.92	54% 16761-14066 (30827)
└ Pistons leg	Pistonsavg 57.8¢	$111.1	$119.1	+$8
└ Knicks leg	Knicksavg 42.3¢	$107.74	$96.81	-$10.93
RN1	Pistonsavg 61.9¢	$232.62	$188	-$44.62	54% 55451-47514 (102965)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Knicksavg 37.5¢	$19.12	$25.5	+$6.38	58% 27917-20560 (48477)

Forecastication2CTR

Knicks

Invested

$847.85

Value

$982.5

PnL

+$134.65

Record

50%

6756-6757 (13513)

takeormake

Pistons

Invested

$979.05

Value

$802.5

PnL

-$176.55

Record

54%

3774-3233 (7007)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Pistons

Invested

$218.83

Value

$215.91

PnL

-$2.92

Record

54%

16761-14066 (30827)

Both legs:

Pistons$111.157.8¢+$8

Knicks$107.7442.3¢-$10.93

RN1

Pistons

Invested

$232.62

Value

$188

PnL

-$44.62

Record

54%

55451-47514 (102965)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Knicks

Invested

$19.12

Value

$25.5

PnL

+$6.38

Record

58%

27917-20560 (48477)

Research grade

AvoidPistons at 74%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Pistons

2 of 4 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Pistons wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance75.4%

73.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$32.54

Max Loss

-$100.00

132.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.