Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Knicks, while the market favors Pistons (56%). 4 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: Knicks (-5.5)
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Knicks (67%) · Knicks at 45¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 28
⚠️
Avoid
Knicks
6
Knicks 67%
$2.3K
-$65.64
46¢ → 44.5¢
-3% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidKnicks at 45%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Pistons 56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 97%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on Knicks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xC576775EF9167dDc38ee6a4E537545ab73d0b9d2-1789288093603CTR | Knicksavg 45.9¢ | $1,000 | $969.21 | -$30.78 | 51% 22-21 (43) |
OX oxe78sh4w98CTR | Knicksavg 46¢ | $978.72 | $946.8 | -$31.91 | 53% 298-263 (561) |
 VeryLucky888 | Pistonsavg 54.5¢ | $329.85 | $282.48 | -$1.51 | 58% 40372-29160 (69532) |
GG GGLPLCTR<$100 | Knicksavg 46¢ | $64.23 | $64.23 | -$2.09 | 50% 662-652 (1314) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Pistonsavg 54.5¢ | $31.06 | $30.78 | +$0.58 | 58% 27868-20501 (48369) |
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100 | Knicksavg 43¢ | $2.58 | $2.76 | +$0.09 | 50% 6745-6752 (13497) |
Invested
$1,000
Value
$969.21
PnL
-$30.78
Record
51%
22-21 (43)
Invested
$978.72
Value
$946.8
PnL
-$31.91
Record
53%
298-263 (561)
VeryLucky888Invested
$329.85
Value
$282.48
PnL
-$1.51
Record
58%
40372-29160 (69532)
Invested
$64.23
Value
$64.23
PnL
-$2.09
Record
50%
662-652 (1314)
Invested
$31.06
Value
$30.78
PnL
+$0.58
Record
58%
27868-20501 (48369)
Invested
$2.58
Value
$2.76
PnL
+$0.09
Record
50%
6745-6752 (13497)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
44.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.