Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Knicks, while the market favors Pistons (51%). 2 of 2 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Knicks (-4.5)

2 of 2 top Polymarket traders hold Knicks (100%) · Knicks at 49¢ · $232 held · ends Oct 28

Knicks49¢Pistons51¢Ends Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Knicks

Consensus Traders

Knicks 100%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$231.74

Combined PnL

-$6.16

Smart Money Entry

47.8¢ → 49¢

+3% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidKnicks at 49%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Knicks

2 of 2 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Pistons 51%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Knicks49%

Pistons51%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Knicks2 traders

Total Value$150.62

Total Shares307

Combined PnL-$6.16

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VeryLucky888CTR	Knicksavg 48¢	$679.18	$130.81	-$7.33	58% 40382-29168 (69550)
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100	Knicksavg 47.3¢	$81.37	$81.11	+$0.57	58% 27869-20504 (48373)
└ Knicks leg	Knicksavg 47.3¢	$41.16	$41.76	+$1.04
└ Pistons leg	Pistonsavg 52.1¢	$40.21	$39.35	-$0.47
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100	Knicksavg 46.1¢	$18.64	$19.82	+$1.17	54% 16738-14040 (30778)

VeryLucky888CTR

Knicks

Invested

$679.18

Value

$130.81

PnL

-$7.33

Record

58%

40382-29168 (69550)

LeLynxMalynxARB<$100

Knicks

Invested

$81.37

Value

$81.11

PnL

+$0.57

Record

58%

27869-20504 (48373)

Both legs:

Knicks$41.1647.3¢+$1.04

Pistons$40.2152.1¢-$0.47

HomeRunHazardCTR<$100

Knicks

Invested

$18.64

Value

$19.82

PnL

+$1.17

Record

54%

16738-14040 (30778)

Research grade

AvoidKnicks at 49%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Knicks

2 of 2 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Pistons 51%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Knicks wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance51.2%

49.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$95.12

Max Loss

-$100.00

195.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.